This is the first edition of my quick breakdowns for UFC events. In this series I will breakdown every fight on the card, I will not go very deep from a technical viewpoint as I believe there are better technical analysts than me (e.g. Jack Slack) as well as it would be too long and boring to both read and write. Instead, I will aim to give you a quick breakdown of how each fight might unfold and who I think will win and why. If you have any suggestions then please contact us at @MMA_Scout on twitter.
Joe Benavidez vs Deiveson Figueiredo
This is a fight for the vacant flyweight belt which was vacated (or stripped, depending on who you believe) by Henry Cejudo. Benavidez will be looking to finally get his hands on a championship belt in his fourth attempt. Joe B is coming off an impressive 3 fight winning streak which includes finishes of Alex Perez and Jussier Formiga. Deiveson Figueiredo is on a 2 fight win streak himself with wins over Alejandre Pantoja and Tim Elliott.
I don’t see a way this isn’t an exciting back and forth fight unless Benavidez is able to utilise his wrestling skills for 5 rounds. It would be surprising if he didn’t try to wrestle due to the success Formiga had on the ground vs Figueiredo. However, Benavidez is not a cautious grappler like Formiga is and is likely to be more aggressive which may allow Figueiredo to scramble back up. On the feet, I would have to favour the power of the Brazilian over Benavidez’ sharper but defensively flawed technique.
Overall, I see this being a very close fight with Benavidez having the better of the grappling but Figueiredo being able to stay upright for enough time to edge out a decision due to the more damaging shots landed on the feet.
Felicia Spencer vs Zarah Fairn
This is a weird co-main event, with no offence to the fighters involved. The only reason I can see behind is that the UFC wants Spencer to win so that they can have a challenger for the Nunes’ featherweight belt.
This isn’t a very complicated fight to breakdown. Spencer will likely work her way into the clinch, get a body lock takedown and look for submissions on the ground. Fairn will have to stay at range and use her length to pick Spencer apart. MMA math tells us that Spencer should win by submission, after all, she submitted Megan Anderson who in turn submitted Fairn. Luckily for Fairn MMA math isn’t real and she will have the chance to upset the odds.
Magomed Ankalaev vs Ion Cutelaba
One of the most underrated fights on this card comes from the light heavyweight division. Both are coming off impressive wins and are looking to build momentum which may catapult them to fringe title contenders.
In my opinion, this is an easy fight to predict. Magomed Ankalaev is the superior technician both on the feet and on the ground. Despite having shown dangerous ground and pound skills before his UFC debut, Ankalaev usually prefers to keep the fight on the feet and pick his opponents apart with his kickboxing. Cutelaba on the other hand is an athletic wild man but lacks a substance to his technical game. However, in his most recent fight, he showed good fight IQ by quickly getting a takedown against the Bangkok ready Khalil Rountree.
I think Magomed Ankalaev will be able to survive the early blitz from Cutelaba and drag the fight into the later rounds where his superior technique should win him the fight. I think the Chechen fighter will win by unanimous decision.
Megan Anderson vs Norma Dumont
Another fight that probably shouldn’t be on the main card, coincidentally also in the women’s featherweight division.
There is not a lot to breakdown in this fight as there isn’t a lot of footage on Norma Dumont. From what I can gather she has some grappling skills which might be enough for her to get the win over Megan Anderson. Still, I have to pick Anderson as her striking skills are a handful for most fighters in her weight class. The pick is Anderson by second-round T/KO.
Grant Dawson vs Derrick Minner
This was originally supposed to be Dawson vs Skelly but Skelly was forced to withdraw with an injury. Derrick Minner steps in as a late replacement and it should still be a fun fight for as long as it will last. Dawson is one of the best grapplers at featherweight who combines relentless takedowns with a suffocating ground game. Minner is a very aggressive grappler himself, often preferring position over submission which has led to only 3 of his 34 fights going the distance.
This is likely to be a grapplers delight as both men will be eager to take it to the ground. Minner may have some success early with how relentless Dawson is on the ground but I expect Dawson class to show en route to a first-round submission.
Gabriel Silva vs Kyler Phillips
Two exciting young prospects will meet in the bantamweight division. Silva is coming off a loss in his debut against Ray Borg, despite losing a decision Silva showed that he belongs in the UFC by having a competitive grappling match with Borg. On the feet, he is more of a traditional pressure boxer who likes using hooks to get in close. Phillips, on the other hand, is more of a flashy kicker that likes to stay at range. However, he is a very good grappler too and might push the grappling early and look to replicate Borg’s success with taking the back.
I think this will be a very competitive fight but I have to favour the more meat and potatoes pressure boxing game of Gabriel Silva in addition to his UFC experience over Phillips’ more flashy style. However, no matter who wins here, both guys have a bright future ahead of them.
Tom Breese vs Brendan Allen
Tom Breese is finally back (or at least is scheduled to be back). About 4 years ago, I thought that he was going to be the next big British star. However, injuries and pre-fight anxiety issues slowed his career progression down. That doesn’t change the fact that he is a very talented fighter. Brendan Allen is also an exciting prospect in the middleweight division. He took the difficult way up and has fought top regional competition in his early twenties. Although he lost his first two LFA title fights, it still felt inevitable that he would make it to the UFC.
Breese is a very skilled boxer with good fundamentals which he showed in his knockout wins over Cathal Pendred and Dan Kelly. He doesn’t rush his work and look for big punches, instead, he lets the finish come to him. On the ground, Breese is a BJJ blackbelt and has competed in a lot of grappling competitions in his time off. Allen is not nearly as technical as Breese, however, he is an extremely tenacious fighter both on the feet and on the ground. Allen will look to get into the clinch and either land knees and elbows or get a body lock takedown. The American is very scrambly on the ground and can drown his opponents as the fight goes on.
I have to pick the more technical fighter in Tom Breese but I would not be surprised if Allen got his hand raised due to the red flags surrounding Breese and the tenacity of Allen. Tom Breese by first-round T/KO.
Luis Pena vs Steve Garcia Jr.
Steve Garcia Jr., is coming as a short-notice replacement for Alex Munoz on the back of two impressive T/KO wins. Whilst Luis Pena is looking to rebound from a close split decision loss to Matt Frevola.
This should be a fun striking match between two very different types of strikers. Garcia is more of a plodding power puncher whilst Pena prefers to throw a lot of volume combined with flashy flying knees. Despite moving up in weight, I give the power edge to Garcia Jr. and Pena the edge in speed and volume.
Pena has mainly struggled with grapplers in the UFC and I feel that this is a favourable stylistic matchup for him. I think Pena’s volume and variety will guide him to a unanimous decision against a dangerous Steve Garcia Jr.
Marcin Tybura vs Sergei Spivac
When he first got signed, Tybura was seen as one of the brightest prospects at heavyweight and even fought Fabricio Werdum in a main event. However, since that fight, Tybura’s performances have declined and so has his durability which he usually relies on. In his two most recent fights he looked a shell of his former self as he got outstruck and finished by both Shamil Abdurakhimov and Augusto Sakai. Luckily for him, Spivac isn’t nearly as technical of a striker as his previous two opponents. Spivac came through the Ukrainian regional scene as a grappler with tricky submissions. His striking did look somewhat improved with Tai Tuivasa but he still won largely because of Tuivasa inability to stop a takedown.
Although it may be a stupid pick in hindsight, I think Tybura’s grappling skills are more than enough to win this fight. He will also be the much more technical kickboxer but his durability may let him down if Spivac comes forward and bites down on his mouthpiece. I see Tybura picking up a decision in a sloppy fight.
Jordan Griffin vs TJ Brown
This fight is likely to be action-packed because Jordan Griffin doesn’t fight any other way, sometimes to his detriment. On the surface the dynamics are clear, Griffin is the striker and Brown is the grappler. However, due to Griffin’s questionable fight IQ, I’m not sure it matters. Griffin is the better striker and carries good power whilst Brown is a solid wrestler with good scrambles and top control. If it stays on the feet, Griffin will have the advantage due to Brown’s less than the solid chin, however, Griffin has the tendency to engage in grappling even when he has a clear advantage on the feet (e.g. the Chas Skelly fight). If it hits the ground I will have to favour Brown although Griffin is not a terrible grappler by any means.
I think unless Griffin is able to knock Brown out early, it will be a scramble heavy fight in which I have to favour the UFC newcomer. I’m picking Brown to eventually wear out Griffin on the ground and win a close decision.
Aalon Cruz vs Spike Carlyle
Both guys are making their UFC debuts. Cruz is coming off one of the best knockouts of the year against Steven Nguyen on DWCS where he landed a flying knee in the last minute of the fight. Carlyle is a hot prospect out of California and cross-trains at the Treigning Lab and King’s MMA – two great gyms.
Cruz very tall and prefers to stay at range to pick his opponents apart with his kicks. He has shown very good cardio considering how tiring it is to throw kicks for three rounds. Grappling wise he is a BJJ purple belt and his long limbs make him a dangerous submission artist. Spike Carlyle is a very athletic fighter but somewhat of a mess technically which leads to an energy taxing style. He goes for a lot of takedowns and gets them with regularity but I’m not sure that he will be able to control a tricky grappler like Cruz for lengthy periods of the round. Striking wise, the advantage has to go to Cruz as Carlyle is very wild coming forward and will be open to counters, perhaps another flying knee. I think that Cruz will find a knockout in the second round after Carlyle expends a lot of energy early.
Ismail Naurdiev vs Sean Brady
This arguably the second most high skill level fight on the card yet it is the prelim opener for some unknown reason. Both fighters have bright futures in the welterweight division which makes it a bit weird that the UFC is matching them both up so early in their UFC careers.
Naurdiev probably had one of the most impressive debuts of 2019 when he upset a streaking Michel Prazeres. Naurdiev comes from a wrestling background but he is at his best when striking at range. He is a very quick and accurate kicker with good straight punches, he has recently teamed up with Henri Hooft who should be a good fit for his style. Grappling is probably Naurdiev’s weakest point. As shown in the Rencountre fight, he was unable to get up from the bottom when his initial explosive actions didn’t work.
Brady is a more classical fighter, with solid boxing and good physicality. He also had an impressive debut when he beat Court McGee. His speed was the difference in that fight but I don’t think he will a significant advantage in speed when he fights Naurdiev. Brady is also a very solid grappler once he is able to get on top. The path to getting it there will probably be by catching Naurdiev’s kicks.
In my opinion, Naurdiev is the cleaner striker and will be able to keep this fight at range where he should score enough points to get a decision victory. However, if Brady is able to consistently find takedowns then the fight is his to lose.
Quick Picks
Figueiredo by decision
Spencer by first-round submission
Ankalaev by decision
Anderson by second-round T/KO
Dawson by first-round submission
Silva by decision
Breese by first-round T/KO
Pena by decision
Tybura by decision
Brown by decision
Cruz by second-round T/KO
Naurdiev by decision