Israel Adesanya vs Yoel Romero
This is one of of the best match-ups UFC could have made this year, despite what on paper looks like an underwhelming run for Yoel Romero. In reality, Romero has looked better than ever against top-level competition and could have easily won his last two fights with different judges. Meanwhile, Adesanya has been on an amazing run in the last couple of years.
This isn’t a difficult match up to breakdown in my opinion but it doesn’t make it any less exciting. Adesanya will look to stay at range and slowly pick Romero apart, I believe that it would be smart for him to be very cautious and try to score points instead of going for the finish. This is because Yoel Romero is made from steel, at least that’s what his previous opponents have said and is unlikely to be finished by a single strike. In addition to his athleticism, Romero is also a very smart fighter and tends to pick up reads in the early rounds. His fight with Rockhold and the rematch with Whittaker had a similar trajectory. The Cuban started very slowly and allowed his opponents to win the early rounds without much trouble, however, in the third round Romero was able to spot an opening and landed huge punches seemingly out of nowhere.
Despite Romero’s obvious power and unpredictability, this is a very winnable fight for Adesanya. As long as he remains alert and does not fall into the traps that Romero will undoubtedly be setting up. I think that it might be a bit of an underwhelming fight from an action standpoint if Adesanya is to win. However, the fact that Romero is always dangerous will make this a nail-biting fight to watch as a fan. Overall, I think that Adesanya will be able to avoid getting caught and outpoint Romero to a decision.
Zhang Weili vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk
As high level of striking match as you are going to get in women’s MMA. Zhang is coming off a stunning early knockout of Jessica Andrade which allowed her to capture the title in her native China. She is now taking her talents stateside to defend her title against the most accomplished strawweight in UFC history. After a tough run, Jedrzejczyk rebounded with a dominant performance against Michelle Waterson.
I believe that Zhang has been falsely categorised as a big puncher after her win over Andrade, this is not to say that she isn’t a dangerous finisher. I just think that early knockouts tend to skew people’s opinions more than they should. In reality, I still don’t have a good read on what type of fighter Zhang is. From what we have seen so far, Zhang’s main strengths are her physicality and speed which complement her functional offensive striking and dangerous clinch game.
Jedrzejczyk is more of an open book at this point. She is arguably the best open space striker in the division and has amazing cardio which allows her to take fights over the longer they go. In addition to this, she is a great clinch fighter and shown solid takedown defence although I don’t think it will be relevant against Zhang.
This seems like a two outcome type fight to me. Either Zhang is able to hurt and finish Joanna early in the fight or Joanna survives the early storm and finds her rhythm which allows her to score enough point to win by decision. The most dangerous finisher in the division vs the best round winner in the division. If the division in question was any other division apart from strawweight, I might have been inclined to pick the finisher. However, finishes at strawweight are rare and I have to pick Joanna. I think she will be able to stay on the outside and drown Zhang in volume en route to a decision win.
Beneil Dariush vs Drakkar Klose
A matchup between two borderline top 15 lightweights. Despite having a tough stretch in 2017 and 2018, Dariush rebounded with 3 wins in a row and is now looking to get back into the top 15. Klose has quietly amassed an impressive 5-1 record in the UFC but has never been able to break the top 15. Now he gets the chance to get a marquee name on his record.
Dariush’s skills were never in question, he started off as a dangerous grappler but under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro he grew in an effective striker that is able to hang with anyone in the division. The problem for Dariush has been his cardio and durability. Klose is a very consistent fighter and performs at a similar level in most of his fights. Klose has competent wrestling but often prefers to keep the fight in the clinch where he is able to grind on his opponents. As a striker, Klose is quite meat and potatoes but does have a very good low kick which can comprise the movement of his opponents.
I made the mistake of writing Dariush off before his fight with Frank Camacho and he looked better than ever. I am not going to do the same mistake again. I think that Dariush is a very good round winner and that Klose does not have enough punching power to knock him out. I believe that Dariush is the more skilled striker and grappler as well as being a very competent clinch fighter. This doesn’t leave a lot of paths to victory for Klose apart from either catching him early or wearing him out as the fight goes on. Nonetheless, I think that Dariush will win by a clear decision.
Li Jingliang vs Neil Magny
Li Jingliang gets another step up and a chance to consolidate himself in the top 15 against a returning Neil Magny. I feel that the two fighters have opposite career trajectories, Jingliang has been looking better every time we’ve seen him whilst Magny has become a bit of the gatekeeper of the division.
Both fighters tend to start slow and get better as the fight goes on. I think this favours Jingliang, as he tends to get hurt early in fights and has to claw his way back into the fights. The Chinese fighter is a fundamentally solid boxer with power and a good chin. He is also very good at using leg kicks which will be useful against a tall fighter like Magny. Magny will have a significant height and reach advantage, so it would be smart for him to use to the best of his ability. He has a good jab but not a lot of power so I’m not sure if it will be enough to keep Jingliang off. I think that it would be smart for Magny to try and clinch up and look for takedowns from there. The American likely has a big advantage on the ground if he can get it there.
Overall, I have to pick Jingliang to win by a late stoppage. I think that he will consistently build up pressure and eventually, the low kicks will immobilise Magny making him a standing target for the power punches. Another thing to consider is how much damage Magny took against Ponzinibbio, however, he did take a long time to recover after that fight. I think Li Jingliang will win by a 3rd round T/KO.
Alex Oliveira vs Max Griffin
A fun fight between two action fighters in the welterweight division. Oliveira has been on a bit of a downswing, coming in on 3 fight loss. However, he has had good moments in all of those fights. Griffin is coming off a loss against Alex Morono, a fight that he could have won if he chose to wrestle before the third round by which point it was a little too late.
Both fighters aren’t the most technical in the division but both are great athletes that can use their natural gifts to overcome the technical discrepancies. The similarities don’t end there, both are usually seen as brawling strikers, however, both Oliveira and Griffin are at their best when they are able to wrestle their opponents.
I think this will be a fun but messy fight with both men having success. I have to favour The Brazilian Cowboy though as I think he is the better striker and can match Griffin’s physicality when they engage in wrestling exchanges. Griffin’s toughness might be enough to get the win though, as we have seen Oliveira fade in gruelling fights before. The pick is still Oliveira by a close decision.
Jose Quinonez vs Sean O’Malley
Sean O’Malley will be making his return to the octagon after a 2-year layoff. Fortunately for him, most of it has been to a USADA suspension that has since been resolved and not due to injury. Opposite him will be a lesser-known but more UFC experienced Jose Quinonez. The Mexican fighter is 5-2 in the UFC and will be looking to upset the applecart when he faces off against O’Malley.
Sugar Sean is an exciting striker with a deep arsenal of skills. O’Malley’s main focus is his flashy kicks and accurate straight punches, which he blends together well. During his time off, he competed in Quintet where he showed impressive ground skills. Quinonez is a decent striker with good output, he doesn’t seem to have fight changing power to scare O’Malley off his game and he has been dropped in his fight with Ishihara.
I think the UFC sees it as a setup fight for O’Malley to make his comeback and get back some of the hype he had before. Quinonez will not be an easy out for him but I do not see where ‘Teco’ can trouble O’Malley. I think O’Malley will be able to hurt Quinonez with his straight punches and maybe find a submission on the ground against a stunned opponent. My pick is O’Malley to win by submission in the 2nd round.
Austin Hubbard vs Mark Madsen
Mark Madsen is an Olympic silver medalist in Greco-Roman wrestling which makes him one of the most credentialed wrestlers in MMA. He started his MMA career late but has quickly made his way to the UFC. Hubbard is a former LFA title holder and has rebounded from a UFC debut loss with a hard-fought decision over Kyle Prepolec.
Madsen is still very young in his career and it shows, he isn’t a nuanced striker and will mainly look to go to his wrestling. He showed his ground and pound skills in his debut against Danilo Belluardo with a quick stoppage from top position. Hubbard isn’t the most technical striker but can more than hold his own on the feet. His toughness might be his best asset, which he showed in his fight with Prepolec where he had to overcome a tough start and grind his way to a victory. He is a willing wrestler but I don’t think it will be smart for him to do so here.
I’m not as sold on Madsen’s long term potential as some other people. His skill set seems somewhat limited but he is a very good athlete with a great wrestling background. I think it will be enough to grind out a win against a tough opponent in Hubbard. I think Madsen will win by decision in a sloppy back and forth fight.
Rodolfo Vieira vs Saparbek Safarov
Another fight that feels like a set up by the UFC. Vieira is arguably the most accomplished BJJ artist in the UFC. Vieira made his UFC debut with a submission win over Oskar Piechota. Saparbek Safarov is moving down in weight after getting his first UFC win in a sloppy and dirty win over Nick Negumereanu.
In the BJJ community, Vieira is known for his suffocating top game and guard passing which is exactly what he brings to MMA where he can mix in ground and pound to open up submissions. His striking isn’t the best but he did show a good jab in his UFC debut. Safarov is a brawler at heart and will try and will not back down if the going gets tough. The technical side to his game is lacking, however.
This is an easy fight to pick with Vieira having such a big advantage on the ground. The only concern is if Safarov is able to stuff the early takedown attempts and make the fight messy. Nonetheless, I think Vieira’s grappling will be too good and he will win by a 1st round submission.
Gerald Meerschart vs Deron Winn
This is a weird fight that will take place in the middleweight division. Meerschaert will have a huge advantage when it comes to experience with 42 fights in comparison to Winn’s 7 fights. There will also be a big difference in heights, Meerschaert stands at 6”1 whilst Winn is 5”6. Despite his small stature, Winn did miss weight in his most recent fight.
I am confident that this fight will play out on the feet. Winn is a decorated wrestler whilst Meerschaert is a dangerous opportunistic submission grappler. However, it seems that Winn will have the ability to decide where the fight will take place and if his fight with Eric Spicily is anything to go by, he will not want to engage on the ground. Striking wise this fight is difficult to call. Winn will have a significant speed advantage whilst Meerschaert will be the longer and more experienced striker.
I think this fight will be very close but I have to favour the superior athlete in Winn. His striking is still raw but he has shown some good basics for a wrestler, mainly a lighting quick overhand. Meerschaert might be able to out-veteran Winn and make it an awkward kickboxing match but I think the speed of Winn will be too much for the already notably slow Meerschart. I think Winn will do enough on the feet to earn a decision.
Emily Whitmire vs Polyana Viana
Viana had a lot of hype when she came into the UFC and was praised for her submission skills. However, after her impressive debut, she was unable to live up to the hype and dropped 3 fights in a row. Whitmire is the opposite, she had a tough start to her UFC career but picked up a couple of wins before being submitted by Amanda Ribas who is a highly-touted prospect in her own right.
I think this is a classic wrestler vs BJJ artist fight. Whitmire has shown some good wrestling in her UFC career and does well when she is able to get on top. Whilst Viana is most comfortable on the ground looking for submissions. I think the key in this matchup is who will be able to get the takedowns and get top position.
I think that Whitmire’s wrestling will be enough to get the win as long as she doesn’t get caught in a submission from the bottom. Whitmire will get the win on judges scorecards after spending most of the fight on top, maybe having to fight off a couple of close submission attempts along the way.
Giga Chikadze vs Jamall Emmers
For me, this is one of the most interesting fights on the undercard. Chikadze is a high-level striker and has competed in Glory. Whilst Emmers is a highly-touted prospect that has finally made his way to the UFC. Both guys had unsuccessful stints on DWCS but learnt from their losses and are now looking to gain momentum in a stacked featherweight division.
As previously mentioned, Chikadze comes from a kickboxing background. This is evident in his fight as he utilises a variety of flashy kicks to pepper his opponents. Chikadze’s best weapon is his left liver kick which he named the ‘Giga kick’. Giga’s ground game and takedown defence are a concern as it led to his loss on DWCS and allowed Brandon Davis to score multiple takedowns in his UFC debut. Jamal Emmers is an all-rounder. He is a comfortable striker at range but I think that he does his best work on the ground. He is a competent wrestler and good submission grappling skills as seen in his most recent win over a talented striker in Rafael Barbosa.
Despite the hype behind Chikadze, I think that Emmers’ well-roundedness will be key in this fight. I don’t think that Chikadze will be able to wipe out Emmers on the feet. Whilst Emmers should be able to score multiple takedowns and use his solid ground game to wear out the kickboxer and eventually find the submission. My prediction is Emmers to win by a 2nd round submission.
Danaa Batgerel vs Guido Cannetti
The prelim opener comes from the bantamweight division. This could end up being an exciting striking match. Batgerel is coming off a debut loss to Heili Alateng, a fight that was awarded the FOTN bonus. Cannetti lost to Marlon Vera in his most recent fight but not before putting up a very good effort in the first round.
Both fighters are mainly strikers. Batgerel prefers to stand at range and mix up his kicks with punches at a good volume but doesn’t put a low of power into his strikes. Cannetti uses kicks at range but likes to surprise his opponents with explosive blitzes. Cannetti has also shown the ability to mix it up and take his opponents down – an area where Batgerel had some issues in his UFC debut.
Although Cannetti is on the wrong side of 40 and fighting in a young man’s division I think that he is a more diverse fighter in this match up. I don’t think Batgerel will be able to take advantage of Cannetti’s suspect cardio and the Argentinian will land the bigger punches and maybe get some top control time. I think Cannetti will do enough in the first two rounds to get the decision at the end of the fight.
Quick Picks
Israel Adesanya by decision
Joanna Jedrzejczyk by decision
Beneil Dariush by decision
Li Jingliang by 3rd round T/KO
Alex Oliveira by decision
Sean O’Malley by a 2nd round submission
Mark Madsen by decision
Rodolfo Vieira by 1st round submission
Deron Winn by decision
Emily Whitmire by decision
Jamall Emmers by 2nd round submission
Guido Cannetti by decision