Patricio Pitbull vs Pedro Carvalho
A title fight and a quarter-final of the featherweight Grand Prix. This fight is a near guarantee to be an all-out brawl for as long as it lasts. This is mainly because of how willing Pedro Carvalho is to come forward and trade with his opponents.
In most of his fights, Carvalho is the one coming forward and does so with the use of a left body kick and high volume punching. Pitbull is a much more well-known commodity and is a very well rounded fighter. I think that in this fight, he will be happy to take on the role of the matador and fight of the back foot. He will have plenty of opportunities to land his counter punches and hurt the challenger. Pitbull will also have the option to grapple as Carvalho hasn’t shown the best takedown defence.
Overall, I think this will be a very fun fight but it’s difficult to pick against Pitbull. The champion is one of the best featherweights in the world and I think that his well-roundedness and especially his counter-punching will get him the win. I believe that Pitbull will get the win by T/KO in the second round.
Daniel Weichel vs Emmanuel Sanchez
A second featherweight Grand Prix quarterfinal on this card and rematch too. In their first fight, Weichel was able to win a split decision in a very close fight. Since then, Sanchez has gone on a great run and fought for the title. I think it’s fair to say that Sanchez is a better fighter than when they first fought. Weichel also looked good since then but he is 35 now which is quite old for a featherweight.
The dynamics of this fight remain the same, the relentless pressure and aggression from Sanchez versus the technical and defensive game of Weichel. A new element in this fight will be that it’s 5 rounds. Both fighters have very good cardio but I think it benefits Sanchez as he sometimes has the tendency to start slow and build as the fight goes on.
In my opinion, this will be a close fight just like their first. However, I believe that Sanchez’s youth and aggression will be enough for him to get the win. He might drop the first two rounds but I expect him to come on strong in the championship round and do enough in the judges’ eyes to win a close decision.
Paul Daley vs Sabah Homasi
This will be a spicy banger. Neither man likes to back down from a firefight and I doubt they will start now. Daley and Homassi are coming off big knockout wins and will try to win in a similar fashion here.
I think the key to victory here will be durability. Daley is a veteran of 61 fights but has only been finished by strikes once (the famous Nick Diaz fight). Meanwhile, Homasi has been stopped by strikes 5 times in 21 fights, although one of his losses to Abdul Razak Alhassan was very controversial.
Overall, I have to favour Paul Daley here. He will likely get a fight he wants as Homassi will meet him in the middle of the cage and trade punches. I can’t pick against Daley in that type of fight, I think he will get a first-round knockout. However, Homasi has shown some wrestling skills in the past, so it would be smart to use them in this fight even if it goes against what the audience wants to see.
Nick Newell vs Zach Zane
An interesting fight that will likely have a lot of grappling. Newell is coming off a disappointing split decision loss and will be looking to rebound, whilst Zane has picked up an upset win over a talented prospect in Nainoa Dung in his most recent fight.
As I said, there will likely be a lot of grappling in this fight. Newell might be the more skilled grappler but I think that Zane has the wrestling advantage so he will be able to dictate where the fight takes place and who ends up on top. Therefore, I have to pick the underdog in Zane here. I think it will be very competitive but the wrestling will be the key for Zane if he is to win. My pick is Zach Zane by decision.
Anatoly Tokov vs Fabio Aguiar
This is a bit of a weird fight, Tokov is on a 5 fight win streak with the only decision coming against the former champion in Alexander Shlemenko yet he is facing a promotional newcomer in Fabio Aguiar. Aguiar does have a nice looking record at 17-1 but from what I’ve seen of him he doesn’t seem to be a big threat to Tokov.
Coming from a combat Sambo background, Tokov is a great all-rounder. On the feet, he is very explosive with power in his right hand and likes to use looping punches. He has solid top control on the ground and will look to advance to dominant positions where he can use his dangerous ground and pound. Aguiar seems to mainly want to grapple with most of his takedowns coming against the cage, his top game looks good and he tends to do finish his fights with either ground and pound or submission. His stand up is a bit wild and he is too upright which makes him easier to hit.
I think that this is a good stylistic matchup for Tokov and I expect him to look good in this fight. I don’t think that Aguiar will be able to take Tokov down. Whilst on the feet I give a big advantage to the Russian fighter, I think his speed will be too much and he will find a knockout with a right overhand in the first round.
Matt Mitrione vs Ronny Markes
An interesting fight from the heavyweight division as Matt Mitrione looks to spoil the Bellator debut of Rony Markes. This is a typical striker vs grappler fight, Mitrione will be looking to get a knockout on the feet whilst Markes will be trying to take this fight down.
Markes’ run in the PFL has been underwhelming as he struggled to make the light heavyweight limit. However, he has since moved up to heavyweight and will be looking to make a statement in his debut. Markes is a BJJ black belt and has a good top game, however, he has shown some vulnerability when put on his back. That shouldn’t be a problem in this fight as Mitrione will only be looking to strike. It’s a well-known fact that Mitrione is a very dangerous striker with his speed, athleticism and power. He has shown a weakness in wrestling and grappling in his recent fights against Roy Nelson and Ryan Bader which opens up a path to victory for Markes.
I think that although Mitrione is clearly the better striker, the gulf in class on the feet isn’t as big as it is on the ground. Markes should be able to hang on the feet early and look for takedowns. if he is able to get them then it’s his fight to lose. Even if he is unable to finish Mitrione on the ground it will make him think twice when striking and tire him out. The question mark in this fight is Markes’ cardio as he has gassed in fights that he was winning before, additionally, he will be carrying extra weight. Nonetheless, I am picking Markes to grind out a sloppy decision win.
Some fights to look out for on the prelims:
Romero Cotton vs Justin Sumter
Three-time NCAA Division 2 champion vs two times DWCS alumni
Killys Mota vs Nate Andrews
Former LFA title challenger vs PFL veteran and former CES champion
Mark Lemminger vs Ion Pascu
A mirror matchup stylistically between a hot prospect in Lemminger and a veteran in Pascu.
Leandro Higo vs Dominic Mazzotta
Two very solid fighters who only lost to top contenders in Bellator.
Quick Picks
Patricio Pitbull by 2nd round T/KO
Emmanuel Sanchez by decision
Paul Daley by 1st round KO
Zach Zane by decision
Anatoly Tokov by 1st round KO
Rony Markes by decision