Kevin Lee vs Charles Oliveira
This is one of the best match-ups UFC could have booked in the lightweight division. Kevin Lee is hoping to build on his win highlight knockout over Gregor Gillespie and continue his resurgence as a lightweight contender whilst Charles Oliveira is in his career-best form with 6 straight finishes.
I don’t have a strong read on how this matchup will play out. I think that Oliveira is the smoother, more natural striker and has become more confident on the feet during his run. We all know how dangerous Oliveira is on the ground but his wrestling doesn’t get enough credit. Meanwhile, Lee doesn’t seem comfortable on the feet but does have a very good high kick with which he knocked out Gillespie and hurt Trinaldo. Lee is at his best when he is on top of his opponents with heavy ground and pound and a great back take.
Overall, this is a difficult fight to call. On one hand, Oliveira is probably more dangerous wherever the fight goes. On the other hand, we have seen Oliveira crack when the going gets tough and I can see Lee getting top position and landing heavy ground and pound. I am going to hesitantly pick Oliveira due to his well-roundedness and confidence coming into this fight. I think he will be able to make Lee uncomfortable enough on the feet and find a submission when Lee shoots in for a takedown in the third round.
Demian Maia vs Gilbert Burns
Two of the most decorated grapplers in the welterweight division in a fight that is every grappling nerd’s wet dream. The two fighters are going in opposite directions though, Maia has openly talked about retirement whilst Burns is looking to make a title run after moving up from lightweight and going 2-0.
We all know what Maia’s gameplan will be in this fight, he will look to get early takedowns and find his way to the back of his opponent. Just like Charles Oliveira, Maia’s wrestling is very underrated. Apart from the top three wrestlers in the division (Usman, Woodley, Covington), Maia has takedown all of his recent opponents at least once. I believe that Maia’s size will be very important in this fight as he will have a significant advantage over a former lightweight in Burns.
Burns’ strategy will likely be based on limiting Maia’s top control time and making him work for the early takedowns. Burns is definitely the more dangerous striker in this fight and will be smart to keep it on the feet no matter how tempting it is to showcase his grappling skills against a legend like Maia. Since aligning with Henri Hooft, Burns has slowly but surely developed a very solid Dutch kickboxing style which complemented by his natural power.
I think that the stylistic matchup favours Gilbert Burns. He is probably the only person in the welterweight division who has the credentials to be competitive in a grappling match with Demian Maia. I don’t think that Maia will be able to control Burns for the first two rounds. Maia tends to slow down and tire when the third round comes especially if he doesn’t get easy takedowns. I think that Burns will be able to keep the fight on the feet enough to get a clear decision victory.
Renato Moicano vs Damir Hadzovic
Moicano is moving up in weight after suffering back to back defeats at featherweight. I think it could be a good move for him as he did cut a lot of weight to get to 145 pounds. Hadzovic has had a ‘two steps forward, one step back’ kind of career in the UFC but now gets a chance to earn a breakout win.
The Brazilian is a very technical fighter anywhere the fight goes. On the feet, he has a great jab and uses leg kicks very well. He is happy to move around and frustrate his opponents. He is also a very good grappler and looks to take the back when he can. His downside is that he isn’t the most powerful or imposing fighter so his opponents can sometimes walk him down. Hadzovic is mainly a kickboxer with good fundamentals and can stick to a striking gameplan. His weakness has been the grappling, he doesn’t have the best takedown defence or get up ability. Superior grapplers are usually able to control him to a decision win.
I think this is a good matchup for Moicano to get back to winning ways. I don’t see an area where Hadzovic has a clear advantage. The easiest path to victory would be to look for takedowns and dominate on the ground. Perhaps Moicano can find a submission if he is able to take Hadzovic’s back. My prediction is Renato Moicano to win by 2nd round submission.
Johnny Walker vs Nikita Krylov
This is a stupidly violent fight and I am happy that the UFC has booked it. Walker was touted as the man to beat Jon Jones before his fight with Corey Anderson but unfortunately for him, he was T/KOed in the first round. The hype has since died down but it doesn’t change the fact that he is a crazy athlete and can finish the fight at any moment. Nikita Krylov is much more UFC tested and has taken his share of bumps along the way. He is also a kill or be killed type fighter having gone to decision only once in thirty-three fights.
It’s difficult to say what type of fighter Walker is outside of being very athletic. All of his fights in the UFC have ended in the first round and we haven’t seen prolonged exchanged in any of them. He did show good clinch work against Khalil Rountree but otherwise, he is a mystery. What we do know is that he doesn’t have the best punch resistance, having being finished by strikes three times in his career. Krylov comes from a Kyokushin Karate background and it is evident in his fights, he uses quick kicks with both feet and jumps in with heavy punches. Despite his striking background, Krylov is a very willing grappler and has shown good offensive submission skills. He has been vulnerable to submissions himself but I don’t think it will matter against Johnny Walker.
Although I do rate Walker as a prospect in the light heavyweight division and think that he can develop into a good fighter, especially under Firas Zahabi, I don’t think that it’s a good comeback fight for him. Krylov is a heavy puncher and has shown very good durability in the past, having never been stopped on the feet. Also, I think that Krylov’s biggest weakness, defensive grappling, won’t be an issue in this fight. I believe that Krylov will be able to test Walker’s chin early and get first-round T/KO.
Francisco Trinaldo vs John Makdessi
An interesting fight between two skilled yet under-appreciated strikers. Both fighters are getting up there in age but are still putting up good performances. Trinaldo has been in and around the top 15 for the last couple of years but has fallen short when given a fight that would solidify him as a ranked fighter. Since his loss to Lando Vannata, John Makdessi has quietly gone on 3 fight winning streak including a fight of the night against Ross Pearson.
Massaranduba is a patient counterpuncher and has some sneaky skills that can draw out his opponents to attack and give him a chance to counter. He gave the main event headliner Kevin Lee all he could handle before he got caught with a head kick and is the only man top stop, Paul Felder. He struggles against relentless grinders who look to stick on to him, this shouldn’t be a problem against Makdessi. The Canadian is an undersized lightweight that prefers to fight at range. Despite his physical limitation, Makdessi has been able to build a functional striking game that scores well on the judges’ scorecards.
This fight has the potential to be a low volume kickboxing match, making it very difficult to predict. I will go with the more consistent striking of John Makdessi. Especially since it was announced that the event will be held behind closed doors so the home crowd shouldn’t be a factor if it goes to a decision. I also think that Makdessi’s takedown defence will hold up if Trinaldo decides to wrestle. I think John Makdessi will win by a very close decision.
Jussier Formiga vs Brandon Moreno
This is a potential title eliminator now that the flyweight division seems to be back on track. Formiga might feel like it’s his last chance to fight for the title whilst Moreno will see it as an opportunity of a lifetime having only resigned with the UFC 2 fights ago.
Both fighters are similar in the sense that they started out mainly grapplers but have worked hard and developed very good striking games. Formiga is more technical on the feet and has shown solid boxing in his recent fights. Moreno has a very different style and is much more chaotic in his approach using relentless pressure, body shots and kicks. Their striking styles also translate to their grappling with Formiga being the more technical and methodic grappler whilst Moreno is more wild and opportunistic.
This fight will likely end up on the ground which is why I have to pick the more technical grappler in Formiga. Moreno’s path to victory is to scramble well when it hits the ground and break Formiga down with pressure on the feet but it’s easier said than done. I think that he will be able to control the action in a similar way that he has done in the Figueiredo fight en route to a decision victory.
Amanda Ribas vs Randa Markos
Ribas is one of the most exciting prospects at strawweight having put on a great performance against Mackenzie Dern. Randa Markos has been somewhat of a gatekeeper in the division and has alternated wins and losses. This matchup will determine whether Ribas is ready to be a title contender soon or if she needs to go back to the drawing board.
Ribas was an unknown commodity coming into her UFC debut, having been on the bench for over 2 years due to a USADA suspension. However, she spent that time training at ATT and showed off her skills in her first two fights. She is a good grappler with a strong judo base which allows her to either stop or reverse takedown attempts. Striking wise she has good hand speed. throws straight punches and moves well. Markos is mainly a wrestler and has had success in taking down most of her opponents. However, her top control isn’t the best and most of her fights end up having a lot of scrambles. Her striking isn’t bad but likely won’t win her fights on its own.
I think that Ribas is legit and will continue to prove so on Saturday. I think she has a significant advantage on the feet and should be able to either defend Markos’ takedowns or scramble to a more dominant position if taken down. My pick is Amanda Ribas by decision.
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos vs Alexey Kunchenko
Another great fight, this time in the welterweight division. Both fighters are coming off disappointing losses and will be looking to get back into the winning column. The contrasting styles are going to be interesting to watch, the high volume chaos of ZDS vs the calculated kickboxing from Kunchenko.
Zaleski Dos Santos tends to thrive in firefights and throws a variety of attacks at his opponents. He isn’t the most technical fighter but his tenacity and unpredictability tend to cause a lot of problems to whoever is standing opposite of him. Kunchenko is more of a classical striker with good fundamentals and power. However, he is a slow starter and can be a bit low volume which makes some of his fights closer than they should be.
I have to favour ZDS in this fight as he will try to take the early lead and build on it, drowning Kunchenko in volume. Kunchenko will have chances to counter him though and we have seen ZDS hurt before. I just think that the home field advantage combined with the edge in volume will be enough for Zaleski Dos Santos to get the decision win.
Rani Yahya vs Enrique Barzola
Both guys have quietly amassed impressive records in the UFC and exceeded the initial expectations. Barzola is making his bantamweight debut and Yahya will try to rebound from a decision loss to Ricky Simon.
Barzola entered the UFC as a relentless wrestler but has since started to work on his striking and developed into a decent volume striker too. However, it has somewhat reduced the effectiveness of his wrestling game. Yahya is a great grappler and his style kind of reminds me of Demian Maia’s with some underrated wrestling and great submission skills. However, Yahya has struggled against a worse calibre of wrestlers which has caused him to tire and get outstruck on the feet.
Providing that the weight cut doesn’t take too much out of Barzola and he is still the same fighter as he was at featherweight, I think that it’s a very winnable fight for him. He should be able to defend the early takedowns from Yahya and use his newfound striking game to outstrike him on the feet. I think that Enrique Barzola wins by decision.
Mayra Bueno Silva vs Maryna Moroz
Silva is coming off a long lay off after a debut win over Gillian Roberson whilst Maryna Moroz will look to build on her win over Sabina Mazo. The winner of this fight might enter the top 15 in the flyweight division.
Silva is an aggressive come forward striker and has some good tools at range, she has also shown to be very dangerous in the clinch when she got a ninja choke on DWCS. She can be taken down but is constantly working off her back whether to get up or get a submission. Moroz is more reserved and prefers to stay at range. She has quick hands but doesn’t tend to throw with much power, she has shown that she can pressure when needed. She seems like a good submission artist from the limited footage we have seen of her on the ground.
I like Silva’s game although we haven’t seen much of it. I think that her aggressiveness and willingness to get into a firefight will be key here. She might also be able to mix it up and score takedowns to keep Moroz guessing. The pick is Silva to win by a clear decision.
Bruno Silva vs David Dvorak
Another fight in a resurgent flyweight division. Bruno Silva will be looking to earn his first UFC win against a debuting prospect in David Dvorak. Silva lost his debut to a much bigger man in Khalid Taha but did have some good moments in that fight. Dvorak comes in with an impressive record that he build up on the Czech Regional scene.
Silva, a BJJ black belt, is mainly a grappler. He has solid top control and is a determined wrestler. On the feet, he isn’t a big threat and uses more as a set up to get the fight to the ground but he isn’t bad technically and hold his own. Dvorak is a lanky fighter and has some good kickboxing skills, throwing in combinations and landing hard leg kicks. His wrestling isn’t great but he has been able to take the back of a lot of his opponents and get a finish from there.
This is a tough fight to pick. I think Dvorak is the more dangerous striker but due to Silva’s willingness to grapple and Dvorak’s willingness to engage in grappling exchanges, I think this fight will likely end up on the ground. If it does, I have to favour the Brazilian to control Dvorak and advance to dominant positions. I think that Bruno Silva will pick up his first UFC win and do so by decision.
Veronica Macedo vs Bea Malecki
This is a weird fight, Macedo, a former flyweight, is taking on Malecki who has previously fought at featherweight. The size difference will be significant but Macedo will have a big edge in experience with 10 professional fights in comparison to Malecki’s 1.
Skill-wise I think that Macedo is very skilled but has been unlucky in her UFC career so far. She comes from a Taekwondo background and has some nice flashy kicks. On the ground, she has some skills too but has been outwrestled by bigger and stronger opponents. Malecki comes from a Muay Thai background and is very tall for the weight. She benefits from her height in the clinch and has good elbows but she also struggles with her defence like many tall fighters do. On the ground, she is sloppy but has shown the ability to overcome adversity and get a submission in her UFC debut.
I have to pick the more skilled and experienced fighter in Macedo even though she will be giving up a lot of size. I think that Macedo can win the fight both on the feet and on the ground. Personally, I think she will outstrike Malecki to a decision win as long as she doesn’t get overwhelmed in the clinch or give up a bad position on the ground after a scramble.
Quick Picks
Charles Oliveria by 3rd round submission
Gilbert Burns by decision
Renato Moicano by 2nd round submission
Nikita Krylov by 1st round T/KO
John Makdessi by decision
Juicier Formiga by decision
Amanda Ribas by decision
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos by decision
Enrique Barzola by decision
Mayra Bueno Silva by decision
Bruno Silva by decision
Veronica Macedo by decision