Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje
Perhaps the most violent match UFC could have booked. Although some may be disappointed that Ferguson’s title fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov fell through, I can’t be mad at any fight that features Justin Gaethje. Ferguson is riding an absurd 12 fight winning streak which would have got him a belt in any other division. Whilst Gaethje is on 3 fight winning streak himself with all three wins coming inside the first round.
Ferguson is a fighter that tends to ‘drown’ his opponents with his volume, pace and cardio. At his best, Ferguson sets up his attacks behind his jab and enters a flow state where he will throw everything but the kitchen sink. Despite being such a dynamic and dangerous striker, Ferguson also possesses a great front headlock series which he uses when his opponents had enough of the striking and try to take him down.
Gaethje is an incredibly offensive fighter, even if it means taking more shots than necessary. His forward pressure and willingness to trade tends to break his opponents. Perhaps his most potent weapon is his leg kicks. Unlike many other fighters, Gaethje doesn’t need to be at range to land them, he is equally capable of landing his leg kicks in close range. He is also a very dangerous pocket boxer with a lot of power in his right hand, as his last three opponents found out.
Overall, I have to pick Justin Gaethje in this fight. Although he did lose twice when he stepped up to fight the divisions elite in Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier, I think this is a great stylistic fight for him. Despite his great cardio and benefiting from the longer the fight goes, Ferguson is a very slow starter and often gets hurt early. This has been a continuous trend throughout his career and I think Gaethje is the fighter that can finally exploit it. I see Ferguson starting slow like he usually does and accepting a pocket exchange where Gaethje will land a big right hand to win by a first-round knockout.
Henry Cejudo vs Dominick Cruz
Somewhat of a weird fight for the UFC to book, even given the circumstances with the lockdown. Henry Cejudo was initially scheduled to fight Jose Aldo (another questionable booking) but the fight fell through due to Aldo not being able to travel due to the lockdown. Former BW champion, Dominick Cruz steps in as the replacement ending a 3-year absence from the octagon. In those 3 years, Henry Cejudo has won 5 fights including wins over Demetrius Johnson, TJ Dillashaw and Marlon Moraes.
This is a difficult fight to breakdown because we have no idea how Cruz will look after such a long layoff as well as several injuries. At his peak, Cruz employed a movement heavy approach based around his unorthodox footwork. He would frustrate fighters with his striking which would open opportunities to score takedowns. Cejudo’s style is more difficult to define. As we all know, he is an Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling. However, he has been diligently working on his striking and is now more than competent on the feet. Originally, Cejudo was more boxing oriented but has implemented a more karate centred approach since his fight with Wilson Reis. He still likes to trade in the pocket where his durability can prove pivotal.
It is difficult to pick Cruz in this fight due to the number of unknowns and red flags around him. I think it’s safe to assume that the time off and injuries aren’t going to do him any favours, especially considering how reliant Cruz is on his movement. Therefore, I have to favour Cejudo’s somewhat crude but effective game backed by his durability. The wrestling is likely to cancel each other out so the majority of the fight will play out on the feet. I think that Cruz might have some success early with his movement but eventually, Cejudo will be able to track him down and force him to exchange in close range where he will be the quicker and harder puncher. In my opinion, Cejudo will retain his title by decision.
Francis N’Gannou vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Two huge punchers will face off in what is likely a title eliminator. Since his disappointing losses to Stipe Miocic and Derrick Lewis, Francis Ngannou rebounded with three first-round knockouts against top-level competition. Jairzinho Rozenstruik only debuted in the UFC last year but was able to knock out all 4 of his opponents, including a stunning comeback against Alistair Overeem.
As weird as it is, I don’t think that we know a lot about Ngannou’s game despite him having 11 UFC fights. This is because most of his wins came in the first round after his opponents overcommitted and left themselves open for a counter. What we do know about him is that he has a lot of power and is a natural counterpuncher. He showed more willingness to lead against JDS as well as some heavy leg kicks. That said the fight last less than 2 minutes.
Rozenstruik comes from a kickboxing background and it is evident in his striking. He has solid fundamentals and can adjust his intensity as needed. ‘Bigi Boy’ has quick hands and a sneaky kicking game as shown in his fight with Junior Albini. He has shown some weakness on the ground against both Albini and Overeem. The wrestling also seemed to make him more hesitant on the feet in the Overeem fight.
Overall, I think this can be a very weird fight. On first glance, this is a fight between two big punchers who like to end things early. However, the more you look into it, the more it seems like it could be a slow kickboxing match with neither man wanting to lead. There is a high chance that Ngannou will be able to catch Rozenstruik early if he overcommits. However, I’m picking Rozenstuik to make it a slow-paced fight and win a decision based on his superior fundamentals.
Jeremy Stephens vs Calvin Kattar
Both guys are coming off loses in which they controlled the third round and perhaps would have won if the fight was scheduled for 5 rounds. Although he is on a 3 fight losing streak, Stephens has still been making improvements in his game. Kattar came up just short against Zabit Magomedsharipov but can still take away a lot of positives from that fight. He is still close to the top of the division and a win in this fight would put him right back into the mix.
Stephens is a well-known commodity at this point. He is a huge puncher that tends to want to engage in a brawl in the pocket. Early on he tends to headhunt and look for the knockout, however, this often leads to him being outpointed by fighters who are willing to stay on the outside and use their footwork and straight punches. As the fight goes on, Stephens tends to adapt and fight with more nuance. He also has effective leg kicks which can be effective against fighters who are heavy on their lead foot.
Kattar has some of the best pure boxing in the division. He has a great jab and builds his attacks off it very well. He doesn’t tend to load up on his punches which allows him to pick his opponents apart and let the finish come to him. Despite the number of decisions on his record, Kattar has natural power as shown in his fights against Burgos and Lamas. He has shown susceptibility to leg kicks in his fight with Moicano,
This seems like a straightforward fight to predict. If Stephens is to win, he has to avoid headhunting early and work off his leg kicks to immobilise Kattar and force him to exchange in the pocket. However, Kattar is a well-schooled boxer with a good jab, footwork and fight IQ. This should be enough to avoid Stephen’s power punches and outpoint him from distance. I think that Kattar will be disciplined enough to win by decision.
Greg Hardy vs Yorgan De Castro
This fight seems a bit out of place on the main card of a PPV but UFC still considers Hardy to be a big name and wants to promote him like one. Hardy has had one of the weirder UFC debut years, where he has fought 5 times and gone 2-2-1 (NC). De Castro was signed after an impressive performance on DWCS and debuted with a stunning knockout over Justin Tafa.
For all of the negative things I could say about Hardy, he does seem like he is fully committed to MMA and improving as a fighter. We already knew that he is an explosive power puncher from his early run but he has shown growth in his fights against Sosoli and Volkov where he showed off an outside game using his reach and leg kicks. De Castro also surprised me by how much he improved from his time on the regional scene. He was able to stuff takedowns and land several hard leg kicks on DWCS and land a great counter punch in his UFC debut.
This seems like an evenly matched fight based on the skills. Which leads me to pick Greg Hardy as he is the better athlete and the larger, longer man too. I think that he will continue fighting on the outside and use his reach to avoid De Castro’s power on the inside. I think that Hardy will be able to keep his distance and outpoint De Castro to a decision win.
Donald Cerrone vs Anthony Pettis
This a rematch from 7 years ago, when both fighters were still much younger in their careers. Now they are grizzled veterans and are likely on the downside of their careers. However, I really like this matchmaking. Cerrone is coming in on a 3 fight losing streak but arguably against 3 of the top contenders at lightweight. Anthony Pettis has also fallen on some hard times having lost to Nate Diaz and Carlos Diego Ferreira in his recent fights.
Both have had some many fights at the top level that we all know what their games are and how they will approach the fight. I would have to say that Cerrone is the fighter who has improved his game more since their first meeting, he is now a much more comfortable boxer and doesn’t tend to stand as straight up. He is most comfortable at range where he can utilise his kickboxing skills and straight punches or when his opponents blitz forward like Alexander Hernandez did so that he can intercept the attacks. Cerrone’s weaknesses remain the same, he is a very slow starter and doesn’t tend to fare well against consistent pressure fighters.
Pettis has largely remained the same fighter since he beat Cerrone. His lack of adaptation is what likely led to his decline as fighters figured out his style and how to neutralise it. Nonetheless, Pettis is a lighting fast kicker at range and variate the targets very well. He also has some surprising power in his hands and has been able to drop several opponents in recent years. Much like Cerrone, Pettis has a great ground game from the bottom with which he was able to surprise a lot of great grapplers. Pettis’ weakness is also similar to Cerrone – he struggles against pressure heavy fighters and grinders who are willing to take him down.
I do not have a great read on this fight, due to both fighters being on a decline it feels like I have to pick whoever I think has more left in the tank. I think there is an argument to be made that Cerrone still has more left, given his ability to evolve as a fighter. However, he is coming off three knockout losses. Whilst Pettis might not have looked as good as Cerrone in the last couple of years, I think this a good stylistic matchup for him. I think that Pettis will once again win by knockout in the first round as Cerrone will allow him to employ a range kicking game.
Fabricio Werdum vs Alexey Oleinik
A fight between two ageing BJJ experts in the HW division. Werdum is coming off a USADA suspension after a disappointing performance vs Alexander Volkov in 2018. Oleinik continues to prove the oddsmakers and mother time wrong after beating Maurice Greene in January. This fight doesn’t really have an effect on the title picture at HW but is still an intriguing mix of styles between two veterans of the sport.
Werdum started out as a pure BJJ fighter and has had good success. However, his rise really began after he aligned with Rafael Cordeiro and developed an aggressive Muay Thai game to back up his world-class BJJ. This has led him to a highlight reel knockout of Mark Hunt and an upset over Cain Velasquez for the HW title. Oleinik isn’t the most technical striker on the roster, in fact, his striking looks very sloppy but it works. He has long arms which allow him to generate a lot of power from his wild swings. His ground game is where he shines though, with most of his wins coming by submission, Oleinik has a knack for getting weird submissions like the scarf choke and his patented Ezekiel choke.
It’s difficult to look past Werdum in this fight. He is the much more technical striker and there isn’t a single HW who I would favour over Werdum in a grappling contest. However, it is important to remember that both of them are on the wrong side of 40 and this is a HW fight. I do expect Werdum to outstrip Oleinik on the feet and perhaps even find a finish. My prediction is Werdum to win by a second-round knockout.
Carla Esparza vs Michelle Waterson
A fight between two women who are just below contender level at the moment, perhaps a win here will elevate them closer to the title. Waterson is coming off a 5 round decision loss against Joanna where she was outclassed but showed a lot of heart and skill to stay in the fight. Esparza is riding a two-fight win streak against top prospects in Jandiroba and Grasso.
Esparza has improved a lot since her title reign where she was primarily a wrestler. Since then she has been working on her striking with Colin Oyama and has developed a very functional boxing game which connects well with her wrestling. Waterson is a typical JacksonWink product, she relies on her footwork and kick variety to outpoint her opponents. She is also a great backtaker as seen in her fight vs Joanna/
This a very close fight but I have to go with Esparza. I think she improved her striking enough to not get outclasses on the feet and be able to set up takedowns. Waterson’s kicking game is excellent, but it might play into Esparza’s hands as it will leave her more open to takedowns. Furthermore, Waterson’s karate stance might allow Esparza to go for single-leg takedowns. On the ground, it will be a competitive fight, but Esparza showed great top control against a BJJ specialist in Jandiroba. I think this Esparza wins by decision.
Ronaldo Souza vs Uriah Hall
A very weird fight between a perennial contender in Jacare and a constant underachiever in Hall. The fighters do seem to be moving in different directions though, Jacare has dropped 2 in a row, including an unsuccessful visit to the LHW division. Whilst Hall has won two straight against good prospect in Lewis and ACJ.
Much like his compatriot Fabricio Werdum, Jacare started out with a world-class BJJ base but has steadily improved his striking. At this point in his career, Jacare is a good pressure boxer who understands the importance of going to the body. His wrestling game is also quite strong which allows him to dictate where the fight takes place. Uriah Hall is a flashy and exciting striker who is capable of producing moments of brilliance. At his best, he operates behind a quick and stiff jab that is able to disrupt his opponents’ momentum. He also posses some great spinning kick attacks which have made their way to highlight reels.
Although Hall seems to be finally building some momentum whilst Jacare’s age is finally catching up with him. I have to go with the Brazilian in this fight. Unless Jacare has fallen in love with his hands, he will likely go for early takedowns and he should be able to get them. On the ground, this fight is a mismatch and Jacare should be able to get a finish if it gets there. My prediction is Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza to win by submission in the first round.
Vicente Luque vs Niko Price
Another rematch from a couple of years ago where Vicente Luque won by submission in the second round. Since then both fighters have gone on great runs, with Luque only losing once and Price picking some impressive wins against good competition. The winner of this fight likely gets a shot at a top 10 opponent.
Luque has adapted a very fundamentally sound Dutch-style kickboxing under the tutelage of Henri Hooft. He is a consistent pressure fighter and shells up behind a high guard. Luque attacks in combinations and often puts an exclamation mark with a leg kick. He has a lot of natural power and a great finishing instinct. He also specialises in front headlock series, much like Tony Ferguson, and will wrap up a submission if the opportunity is there. Luque is not the best defensive fighter and has taken a lot of damage in his recent fights as a result.
Niko Price is a kill or be killed type fighter. He is a poor round winner and usually looks like he is losing the fight until he lands a huge punch out of nowhere. His long arms allow him to generate a lot of power and will catch people by surprise. Price has also shown the ability to finish fights from the bottom by strikes, as seen in his fights against Randy Brown and James Vick.
I don’t see much reason why I shouldn’t pick Vicente Luque in this fight. He won the first fight comfortably as he pressured Price against the fence and picked him apart on the feet before itching onto a D’Arce choke. In order to win, Price will have to change his strategy from fighting on the back foot in the first fight and meet Luque in the pocket, if he does that he increases his chances dramatically. However, I still think that Luque is the technically superior fighter wherever the fight goes and will win this fight by knockout in the first round.
Charles Rosa vs Bryce Mitchell
Somewhat of a mirror match between two exciting featherweights. Charles Rosa made a triumphant return to the octagon when he submitted Manny Bermudez in the first round. Bryce Mitchell made his name on TUF and has since gone 3-0 in the UFC, most recently picking a submission win over Matt Sayles with an extremely rare twister.
Charles Rosa comes from a grappling background and is BJJ black belt under Ricardo Liborio. He is very comfortable off his back and his submitted the two people who took him down in the UFC. On the feet, he likes to use a lot of kicks and keep his opponents at range. He was getting the better of Shane Burgos in the striking department before getting stopped in the third round. Mitchell has a somewhat similar game, he prefers to grapple and is very tricky on the ground with good back takes. He has also been working on his wrestling game and has shown the ability to get takedowns. On the feet, Mitchell is more boxing centric and has natural flow if not all of the technique behind it.
This will be a very fun fight with non-stop action. I have to tentatively pick Mitchell due to his recent activity and current form. I also think that his wrestling might prove to be pivotal in this fight as he will be able to control where the fight takes place. Additionally, on the feet, I favour the boxing approach of Mitchell over the kicks of Rosa. Mitchell does have to be wary of Rosa’s submission game from the bottom if they do end up on the ground. I believe that Bryce Mitchell picks up his 4th straight win, this time by decision.
Ryan Spann vs Sam Alvey
Two fighters going in completely opposite directions. I think it’s clear to see that the UFC wants Spann to get another win and establish himself as a top prospect at LHW. Alvey has fallen on hard times and has lost three in a row with two of those losses coming by knockout. Spann has gotten off to a 3-0 start in the promotion with two finishes along the way.
Alvey is a simple fighter to breakdown. He is a patient counter striker that will look to land a big right hand. His patience has become somewhat of a weakness in recent years as his opponents found a way to pick him apart without putting themselves in danger of a counter. Spann is a rangy striker with some solid boxing skills. He has good long straight punches which allow him to stay out at range. He is also a good grappler but I don’t think that it will matter in this fight as Alvey has great TDD.
This is an easy fight to predict. I think that Spann will be able to use his range and pick Alvey apart from range without overcommitting. Another factor to consider is that Alvey’s usually sturdy chin has finally started to crack. This isn’t a good recipe against a quick and hard-hitting fighter like Spann. My prediction is Spann to win by knockout in the first round.
Quick Picks
Justin Gaethje by 1st round T/KO
Henry Cejudo by decision
Jairzinho Rozenstruik by decision
Calvin Kattar by decision
Greg Hardy by decision
Anthony Pettis by 1st round T/KO
Fabricio Werdum by 2nd round T/KO
Carla Esparza by decision
Ronaldo Souza by 1st round submission
Vicente Luque by 1st round T/KO
Bryce Mitchell by decision
Ryan Spann by 1st round T/KO