Anthony Smith vs Glover Teixeira
A matchup between two top light heavyweights in which the winner likely enter title contention. Since losing in his title fight against Jon Jones, Anthony Smith picked up the biggest victory of his career as he upset Alexander Gustafsson on his home soil. Meanwhile, Glover Teixeira has quietly built up a three-fight winning streak against younger prospects in Roberson, Cutelaba and Krylov.
Smith brings a power Muay Thai game into the octagon. He has good physical gifts for the division and enough power to make his opponents hesitant. Smith has shown a propensity to inactivity and low volume in several of his fights which often allows his opponents to pick up easy rounds.
Glover Teixeira is a grizzled veteran whose game has stood up to the test of time. Glover has a solid boxing game where he usually focuses on an overhand right. This makes him somewhat predictable and combined with his diminishing speed leave him open to counters. He is perhaps one of the best top position grapplers in the heavier weight classes and if his opponents are not up to scratch in the grappling department there is a high chance that they are getting submitted.
This a difficult fight to predict. On one hand, Glover is the more skilled fighter with a clear path to victory – takedowns and top control. On the other hand, Smith is the younger, fresher and more durable fighter who seems to be finding his groove at light heavyweight. I have been impressed by how Glover looked in his recent fights and think that he has enough left in the tank to get the win. It will likely be a close fight with Smith potentially hurting Glover at some point but I trust the Brazilian to recover and control the fight on the ground en route to a decision victory.
Ovince St. Preux vs Ben Rothwell
A weird fight that has likely only been booked because of the circumstances created by the lockdown. OSP is moving up to heavyweight after returning to winning ways with a signature Von Fleux choke over Michal Oleksiejczuk. Rothwell won his most recent fight against Stefan Struve with a combination of low blows and heavy punches.
OSP is somewhat of a formless fighter, he is a great athlete and has natural power. On the feet, he is often outpointed by more technical fighter and in recent fights has started to get hurt more often. However, he is always capable of landing a fight-ending shot and is a tricky grappler than will look to impose his strength from top position. Rothwell is a brawler with a lot of power, much like OSP, he can often be outpointed by slicker strikers. He posses a good chin which allows him to stay long enough in a fight to turn the tide. He also has a surprisingly good front choke with which he surprised Josh Barnett.
I favour OSP in this fight mainly due to the speed advantage that he will have. Rothwell is one of the slower fighters at heavyweight so the difference in speed should be significant. I don’t think that Rothwell looked great in his fight vs Stefan Struve and largely won because of the repeated low blows he landed. OSP is not a great round winner so it can end up being a difficult fight to score but I expect him to outland his heavier opponent and win by decision.
Drew Dober vs Alexander Hernandez
This is a matchup between two lightweights who are looking to solidify themselves as top players in the lightweight division. Drew Dober is in career-best form having won 5 out of his last 6 fights. He has recently shown off his newfound power punching prowess with 2 first-round knockouts. Alexander Hernandez is coming off a win against Francisco Trinaldo but in reality, it was a fight in which nothing really happened and it could have easily gone the other way. Prior to that, Hernandez lost to Cowboy Cerrone and beat Beneil Dariush and Olivier Aubin-Mercier, coincidentally two fighters who Dober has lost to.
Coming from a Muay Thai background, Dober has had to do some searching to finally end up with his style. In some of his previous fights, he relied on his grappling to get the wins. Eventually, he was able to tap into his natural power and use to his advantage. He is still a technically sound striker but now sits down on his shots more, especially in exchanges. Most of his losses have come as a result of deficiencies in the grappling department.
Alexander Hernandez is a supreme athlete and can be very explosive on the feet as seen in his fight against Beneil Dariush. It is on the ground where he’s most at home though. Hernandez was able to out grapple OAM who is no scrub on the ground himself. He did face a real test in his fight against Cowboy after he was unable to get an early finish and was picked apart by the superior striker. This led to Hernandez adapting an outside kickboxing style against Trianldo but that might have just been an overreaction to the Cowboy fight.
In the long term, I feel that Hernandez has the higher ceiling out of the two fighters. However, in this fight, I favour Dober due to him being in better form and seemingly having more confidence. I think that Dober’s power punching might prove too much for Hernandez who is still figuring out his style. I believe that Dober will pick up a decision win.
Ray Borg vs Ricky Simon
Another matchup where a fighter is moving up in weight. This time, it’s Ray Borg making the jump to bantamweight. This move up in weight has been a long time coming considering Borg’s history of missing weight. Borg comes into this fight with 2 wins in a row. Simon is on a 2 fight skid but has shown good skills in the UFC with wins over a top prospect in Montel Jackson as well as a savvy veteran in Rani Yahya.
Borg is a solid athlete with a great grappling game. At his best, he is able to grind on his opponents and chain endless takedowns until he is finally able to get the fight to the ground. From top position, Borg will patiently work his way to the back and either look for a choke or ride the round out. Simon is a similar fighter who is physically gifted and has a good wrestling background. However, Simon usually prefers to strike. He isn’t the most technical fighter but his tenacity can overcome the technical gaps and wear on his opponents.
In my opinion, this is a bad stylistic matchup for Ray Borg, not particularly because of his skill set but more because of the size difference between the two fighters. I think that Ricky Simon’s wrestling and size will be enough to keep the majority of the fight on the feet. Striking wise, Simon is the more dangerous fighter and will enjoy a 7-inch reach advantage which should help him outstrike “The Tazmexican Devil” to a decision win.
Karl Roberson vs Marvin Vettori
An intriguing fight between two of the better prospects at middleweight with the winner likely entering the top 15. Both fighters are two-fight winning streaks, Roberson beating Wellington Turman and Roman Kopylov meanwhile Vettori bested Cezar Ferreira and Andrew Sanchez.
Karl Roberson comes from a kickboxing background, having fought in Glory. His striking skills are evident, Roberson combines his kicks and long punches well which allows him to pick his opponents apart from range. He is also a good clinch fighter and often looks to take the fight to the ground, sometimes to his detriment.
Marvin Vettori came from a grappling background but since aligning himself with Rafael Cordeiro, the Italian has steadily improved his striking. Much like other Cordeiro students, Vettori is an aggressive striker on the feet. As a grappler, Vettori has a good guillotine but we haven’t seen him on the ground for a prolonged amount of time since his UFC debut.
This seems like a very even fight. I would even go as far as saying it’s a 50/50, however, Roberson propensity to grapple even if it doesn’t benefit him makes me lean towards ‘The Italian Dream’. I think that although Roberson might be a slightly better striker the fight will eventually end up on the ground where I favour Vettori to get a favourable position and win the rounds. Marvin Vettori will extend his win streak by picking up a decision.
Andrei Arlovski vs Philipe Lins
A heavyweight matchup between a UFC mainstay in Andrei Arlovski and debutant Philipe Lins. Arlovski has been one of the more active heavyweights in the roster with 7 fights in just over 2 years. Although he only won 2 of those fights, most of them were very close and could have gone his way on a different night. Philipe Lins is coming in off triumphant PFL run, where he earned a million for winning the HW tournament. During his time with PFL, he defeated 3 UFC veterans in Alex Nicholson, Jared Rosholt and Josh Copeland.
Despite being infamous for getting knocked out often, Arlovski’s chin has made a comeback. He has only been finished once since 2017 in his most recent fight against Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Arlovski has adapted a more stick-and-move approach which allows him to exploit opponents who are slower and more plodding than him. Lins is somewhat similar to Arlovski in his style. He is a skilled boxer than usually enjoys a speed advantage over other heavyweights. Lins makes the best of his hand speed by throwing in combinations as well as having good leg kicks.
I think this a closer match up than it seems on the first look. However, I still think that Lins will be victorious in his UFC debut. His speed won’t allow Arlovski to be able to pick him apart in boxing exchanges and I think that he will eventually catch The Pitbull and earn a knockout win, probably in the first round.
Michael Johnson vs Thiago Moises
Two fighters who have underperformed in the recent year. Michael Johnson had historically been an inconsistent fighter and now find himself on 2 fight losing streak, most recently dropping a disappointing decision to Stevie Ray. Thiago Moises has so far struggled to find his feet in the UFC and 1-2 with the promotion. Despite this, the young Brazilian gets the chance to earn the biggest win of his career.
Having been in so many high profile fights, MJ is a known commodity. His best quality is his hand speed and overall technical striking. His striking has earned him wins over top fighters like Edson Barboza and recent title challenger Dustin Poirier. His takedown defence is usually good but often fails him at crucial points during the fight. His main weakness is probably his ground game which has led him to getting submitted several times. Moises is a young fighter and therefore can improve from fight to fight. Right now he is more of a grappler but isn’t out of his element on the feet either. His takedowns are pretty effective as shown in his fight vs Kurt Hollobaugh. On the ground, he has good top control as well as good submission skills.
Another close fight, MJ is the more consistent striker and will likely edge the stand-up. However, he didn’t look as sharp on the feet vs Stevie Ray in his most recent fight and gave up a fight changing takedown in the 3rd round. I trust Moises to be able to hang on the feet and time a couple of takedowns that will win him the rounds. As a result, I’m picking Thiago Moises to win the fight by decision.
Sijara Eubanks vs Sarah Moras
A fight in the women’s bantamweight division between two fighters with deceiving records. Eubanks will be looking to earn her first win since moving up from flyweight, where she was one of the top contenders and was even scheduled to fight for the title but had trouble making weight. Sarah Moras is looking to build on her upset win over Liana Jojua in September and go on her first winning streak in the UFC.
Eubanks comes from a decorate grappling background and has shown good skills on the ground in most of her fights. Her striking has also improved a lot throughout her career, she is now working with Mark Henry in New Jersey. Sarah Moras is also primarily a grappler and has shown surprisingly good takedowns in the past, she is also dangerous from the bottom and has won some fights that way. Her striking is still a means to end to get the fight to the ground but she knows her limitations and works around them.
It is difficult to look past Sijara Eubanks in this fight, even though she will be the smaller woman in the octagon. Eubanks seems like the more skilled fighter wherever it goes. Despite being a great grappler, I expect Eubanks to keep the fight on the feet where she will have the biggest advantage. I expect her to pick Moras apart and win a judges decision.
Gabriel Benitez vs Omar Morales
Yet another fight in which a fighter is moving up in weight due to the short notice nature of the matchup. This time it’s Gabriel Benitez moving up to lightweight. Having lost his most recent fight against Sodiq Yusuff, Benitez will look to get back on track in a new division. Omar Morales is coming off a victorious UFC debut against Maestro Kim, a fight that largely dominated and was close to finishing on several occasions.
Gabriel Benitez is a solid kickboxer and was praised by Javier Mendes as the hardest kicker he ever held pads for – high praise from someone who trained Luke Rockhold. He is quite a well-rounded striker all round and can pick apart lesser strikers. His weakness is probably his chin as he has been knocked out several times before by heavier punchers. Omar Morales is also mainly a kickboxer with power that likes to fight at a methodical pace. He has shown good kicks and straight punches. He also seems well equipped in the clinch and is unlikely to be bullied there.
In a matchup between two skilled kickboxers, I have to favour the one with the size and power advantage. Morales will also likely be the more durable fighter as we haven’t seen him hurt and can assume his chin is in good shape. I expect Morales to land the bigger shots and keep Benitez at bay with size and reach. Although I do think that he might be able to hurt Benitez, I think this fight goes to a decision where Morales gets the nod from the judges.
Hunter Azure vs Brian Kelleher
A fight between two bantamweights fought at featherweight due to it being made on short notice. This will allow both fighters to concentrate on improving their skills and game plans instead of focusing on cutting weight. In his most recent fight, Hunter Azure got the better of Brad Katona largely due to his improving striking. Meanwhile, Brian Kelleher submitted UFC newcomer Ode Osbourne with his patented guillotine and got back to winning ways.
Kelleher is an extremely aggressive and fan-friendly fighter. He constantly looks to press the action and despite not being the most technical striker he can still have success on the feet. He is also a good grappler and has a very dangerous guillotine with which he gets most of his submissions. Hunter Azure is a good prospect with great physical gifts. Coming from a wrestling background, Azure is at home on the ground but has greatly improved his striking in his recent fights. His leg kicks are probably his best weapon on the feet but he has also shown improved boxing skills in his fight vs Katona.
In my opinion, Azure is a more well-rounded fighter and has been showing improvements from fight to fight. Kelleher is a tricky veteran with a dangerous skillset but if Hunter Azure fights smart I see no reason why he shouldn’t be able to outpoint him. My pick is Hunter Azure to win by decision, perhaps having to survive a couple of scares along the way.
Chase Sherman vs Ike Villanueva
A short notice heavyweight match gives the opportunity to Chase Sherman and Ike Villanueva to showcase their skills on the biggest stage in MMA. This will be Chase Sherman’s second run in the UFC. Since getting released, he went 3-0 with 3 first-round finishes. Ike Villanueva will be making his long-awaited UFC debut after nearly 12 years as a professional fighter. He recently picked up wins over UFC veterans in Roger Narvaez and Rashad Coulter, both by a first-round T/KO.
Chase Sherman is a fun fighter and likes to employ a high volume striking approach with a lot of kicks which is backed up by his above-average cardio at heavyweight. He has a solid chin but his defence leaves a lot to be desired, especially in boxing exchanges. Ike Villanueva is primarily a boxer from the little tape that I’ve seen of him. He seems to have a good understanding of fundamentals and decent hand speed. He is also quite patient and picks his shots even when his opponent is hurt.
Overall, this promises to be a fun fight between two contrasting styles. Villanueva likely has the edge in the boxing department whilst Sherman will have the advantage at kicking range. I favour Sherman’s striking diversity to get him the win. Villanueva seems to be heavy on the lead leg which Sherman is likely to exploit with his low kicks, much like he did in his win over Rashad Coulter. Additionally, Sherman is a natural heavyweight whilst Villanueva has fought at middleweight before. My pick is Sherman to win by a 2nd round T/KO.
Quick Picks
Glover Teixeira by decision
OSP by decision
Drew Dober by decision
Ricky Simon by decision
Marvin Vettori by decision
Philipe Lins by 1st round T/KO
Thiago Moises by decision
Sijara Eubanks by decision
Hunter Azure by decision
Omar Morales by decision
Chase Sherman by 2nd round T/KO