Alistair Overeem vs Walt Harris
An intriguing main event between two heavyweights who will try and become contenders with a win on Saturday. Alistair Overeem is coming off a disappointing last-minute loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik, in a fight that he was comfortably ahead on the scorecards. Walt Harris is on a 3 fight winning streak, most recently finishing Alexey Oleinik in just 12 seconds.
Coming from an extensive kickboxing background, Overeem is arguably the best technical striker in the division. In recent years, he has adopted a more economical approach to compensate for his declining chin. This allows him to impose his striking whilst limiting dangerous exchanges. Overeem’s grappling tends to be overlooked but he has a great top control game with vicious ground and pound.
Walt Harris is an explosive striker, he tends to focus on boxing exchanges but has also shown the ability to use his knees as weapons. Perhaps his best asset is his lighting speed at heavyweight when paired with his natural power it becomes a huge problem for anyone who decides to strike with Harris. We have previously seen some issues in his game when it comes to grappling which is something Harris needs to work on in order to become a top contender.
This is a difficult fight to pick. On one hand, Overeem is the more skilled fighter in pretty much every aspect. On the other hand, Harris is the quicker, more powerful and more durable fighter. I have to go with the blitzing game of Harris. We have seen Overeem get intimidated by big punchers before and deviate from his game plan. My prediction is Walt Harris to get the biggest win of his career with a 1st round knockout.
Claudia Gadelha vs Angela Hill
A fight in the strawweight division between a former title challenger in Claudia Gadelha and a streaking Angela Hill. Gadelha is coming off a decision win over Randa Markos and will be looking to start building a new winning streak in hopes of getting another title shot. Angela Hill has established herself as the ‘Cowboy’ of the division and quickly built up a 3 fight win streak.
Claudia Gadelha is an extremely well-rounded fighter. She started off as an explosive wrestler with submission skills. She then added a very functional striking game based around her boxing. She has, however, struggled with her conditioning and tends to fade as the fight goes on. Angela Hill is a high volume Muay Thai striker. She has also added some offensive grappling to her game. She has a similar problem to Gadelha, as she tends to throw a lot of volume early but tire out later on.
I think this is an easy fight to predict. Despite Angela Hill’s improvements in the last couple of years, I can’t overlook Gadelha’s wrestling and grappling advantage. The takedowns are likely to be there for Gadelha to get, she does need to be careful and to overexert herself early. However, Hill might not be the fighter to exploit Gadelha’s cardio issues even if they do arise. I think that Claudia Gadelha will pick up a decision win.
Edson Barboza vs Dan Ige
A rare fight during the lockdown in which a fighter will be moving down in weight. In order to write a new chapter in his career, Edson Barboza has decided to drop to featherweight. It will be interesting to see how he looks on the scale as he wasn’t outsized at lightweight. Dan Ige is on a 5 fight win streak with a signature win over Mirsad Bektic in his most recent fight. He is likely to break into the top 15 with a win here.
Edson Barboza has made his name as one of the most devastating strikers in the UFC. His knockouts are a mainstay on the highlight reels. Barboza is a lighting fast kicker that doesn’t discriminate his targets. He has also been showing improvements in his boxing in last couple of fights. Dan Ige started out as a grappler with a good top game. However, after dropping his UFC debut, Ige made huge improvements in his boxing. He is now comfortable staying in his opponents face and blitzing them in the pocket.
I believe this is one of the more difficult fights to predict on this card. This is because we have no idea how Barboza will look at his new weight. Ige has shown glimpses of the pressure game that has been known to give Barboza trouble. However, I still have to pick Edson Barboza. I think that the difference in striking skill is too big and the Brazilian will be able to strike his way to a decision win.
Eryk Anders vs Krzysztof Jotko
A fight between two middleweights who were considered to be top prospects a couple of years ago, after falling on hard times both Anders and Jotko look to reclaim the hype they once had. Eryk Anders is on a two-fight win streak, most recently beating Gerald Meerschaert by decision. Krzysztof Jotko has also won two fights in a row with wins over Alen Amedovski and Marc-Andre Barriault.
Eryk Anders is a great athlete with a somewhat dysfunctional game. He is a big puncher but often tends to look for the perfect shot which leads to him being too predictable. ‘Ya Boi’ is extremely durable and has taken huge punches without going out before. Jotko is an all-rounder with solid skills both on the feet and on the ground. He is a more technical striker with some surprising power when he sits down on his punches. On the ground, Jotko is also very skilled and has a solid top game. I do think that we have seen some confidence issues from Jotko recently as a result of back to back knockout losses.
This isn’t an easy fight to predict despite Jotko being the more technical fighter. Anders carried big power and might be able to scare off Jotko off his usual game. I still have to favour the Pole, as Anders doesn’t throw enough volume to put an exclamation on rounds which will allow Jotko to use his technique and volume on the feet en route to a close decision win.
Yadong Song vs Marlon Vera
Arguably the best fight on the whole card. Two bantamweights will face off in the featherweight division due to the short notice nature of the matchup. Yadong Song is undefeated in the UFC with 4 wins and 1 draw which came in his most recent fight against Cody Stamann. Marlon Vera has really come into his own in the last couple of years and is now riding a 5 fight win streak with all of those wins coming inside the distance.
Song is a very exciting prospect, he is an exceptional athlete with both speed and power to match anyone in the division. Despite his obvious physical gifts, Song has not neglected the technical side and has been showing a well rounded striking arsenal in his fights. In his fight against Stamann, he did show some holes on the ground as well as cardio issues in the third round.
Marlon Vera is a very fan-friendly fighter. He is inherently aggressive and will always look to press the action. Vera is a very slow starter and usually drops the first round to most of his opponents. However, when he finally finds his groove he keeps building on his success and stalks his opponents around the octagon. Vera has solid kickboxing skills, knows how to go to the body and great offensive clinch skills.
I see this fight being a tale of two halves. Yadong Song is likely to win the first round convincingly, just like most of Vera’s opponents tend to do. Song is a quick starter and will likely land big shots on Vera as he tries to find his rhythm. However, the longer the fight goes the more it favours Vera and I expect him to have a strong third round. This leaves the second round as the deciding one. Personally, I have to lean Song’s way as I think his speed and power will be too much for Vera to handle early and will allow him to get a comfortable lead before Vera starts coming back. My prediction is Yadong Song to win by decision after a difficult third round.
Matt Brown vs Miguel Baeza
This is a very interesting fight between a young prospect looking to make his name and a grizzled veteran who has fought the best of the division. Miguel Baeza got signed after winning on DWCS and made a successful debut when he T/KOed Hector Aldana in the second round. Having come out of retirement, Matt Brown is now on a two-fight winning streak with finishes over Diego Sanchez and Ben Saunders.
Matt Brown is an all-action fighter. Throughout the years he has made a lot of his opponents wilt under his relentless pace and pressure. His fight with Erick Silva highlights all of his strengths (and some weaknesses) as a fighter. Brown Is also exceptionally dangerous in the clinch where he likes to unload a barrage of knees and elbows. Miguel Baeza is a good athlete with a fundamentally sound kickboxing game. From the limited tape, I’ve seen he likes to pick his shots and often fights on the outside.
The two fighters’ careers are trending in opposite directions, with Matt Brown being in the twilight of his career whilst Miguel Baeza is getting ready to make a run in the division. Despite the age difference, I have to favour Matt Brown in this fight. I think that his forward pressure and aggression will not allow Baeza to settle into the fight and act as a sniper. Baeza also showed signs of slowing down in his DWCS and it’s something you don’t want to do against ‘The Immortal’. My prediction is Matt Brown to have a tough first round but eventually wear the young prospect out and win a decision.
Kevin Holland vs Anthony Hernandez
This promises to be a very exciting fight between two young middleweights. Kevin Holland is coming off his first loss in the UFC where he was submitted by fellow prospect Brendan Allen. Before that, Holland was on a 3 fight win streak including a win over Gerald Meerschaert. In his most recent fight, Anthony Hernandez picked up his first UFC win over Jun Yong Park and will look to build on that on Saturday.
Kevin Holland is as fun of a fighter as he is a confusing one. On the feet, he is a free-flowing striker than can frustrate his opponents with his 81-inch reach. A lot of Holland’s fight tend to end up on the ground one way or another, as a grappler Holland is very scrambly and will put himself in bad positions by being too aggressive but is usually able to escape. Anthony Hernandez is a more boxing centric striker and has shown decent pressure. He has power in his hands as seen in his DWCS fight. On the ground, Hernandez is somewhat similar to Holland in that he scrambles a lot. He has a very good guillotine choke that he uses both to look for the finish as well as create scrambles.
This is a difficult fight to predict because I expect it to have a lot of scrambles on the ground. I wouldn’t be surprised that after 15 minutes we still won’t be sure who the better fighter is. That said, I slightly favour Anthony Hernandez. This is because I think he has a bit more process on the feet and might be able to win rounds with his pressure. In the grappling department, Hernandez’s guillotine might be key in winning the scrambles. In my opinion, Anthony Hernandez will win a very close decision.
Giga Chikadze vs Irwin Rivera
A last-minute fight that has been booked after Mike Davis had to withdraw. Irwin Rivera will be making his UFC debut, he is the former Titan FC Bantamweight champion and will be moving up in weight. Giga Chikadze is a former Glory kickboxer and has gone 2-0 in the UFC since getting signed last year.
Chickadee’s kickboxing background is evident, he is a very technical striker with both his feet and hands. Perhaps his most dangerous weapon is the ‘Giga Kick’ – a lighting fast left body kick that usually sends his opponents crushing down. In his UFC run, Giga has focused a bit more on his boxing skills perhaps due to not wanting to open himself to takedowns. Chickadee’s ground game has improved leaps and bounds after his DWCS loss, he has shown good ground and pound as well as the ability to use sweeps to get up from the bottom. From what I’ve seen, Rivera is a stocky power puncher that likes to stalk his opponents. He mainly uses his hands but has shown fight-ending power in his kicks too.
This is one of the easier fights to predict due to the circumstances surrounding it. Despite being a skilled fighter, Rivera is stepping up on two days notice as well as moving up in weight. Chikadze will be the much taller and rangier man. I expect the Georgian to keep Rivera at the end of his kicks and punches and maybe find a finish when he tires. My prediction is Giga Chikadze to win by a 3rd round T/KO.
Cortney Casey vs Mara Romero Borella
A fight in the women’s strawweight division between two fighters who are looking to get back to winning ways. Both Casey and Borella are coming off losses. Casey dropped a decision to Cynthia Calvillo whilst Mara Romero Borella lost to Montana De La Rosa. It’s possible that Borella needs a win in this fight in order to stay with the promotion.
Courtney Casey is a very aggressive fighter both on the feet and on the ground. Her aggressiveness combines well with her size and toughness. She is often able to bully her opponents around and impose her strength on them, even if she gets takedown she will be active with submission attempts and upkicks. Borella is a more calculating fighter and likes to get the fight to the clinch. She has shown good ground skills when in top position. Her striking is serviceable too but she has shown a susceptibility to getting dropped.
I think I have to favour Courtney Casey in this fight. Despite being 1-3 in her last 4 fights, Casey has had a lot of close fights against high-level opponents. I think that her size will not let Borella grind on her in the clinch and if she gets taken down, Casey has shown the ability to win rounds off her back. She has some pop on the feet, and I think it’s possible that she will hurt Borella at some point in the fight. My pick is Courtney Casey to get back in the win column by decision.
Darren Elkins vs Nate Landwehr
An immediate fight of the night contender in the featherweight division. Darren Elkins will look to break a 3 fight losing skid and regain the form that made him into one of the most difficult matchups in the division. Nate Landwehr had disappointing debut knockout loss to Herbert Burns in the rearview mirror. Prior to that he was a champion in M-1 and beat respectable competition.
Darren Elkins made his name as an extremely tough and gritty wrestler who is willing and able to sustain damage early in fights but eventually take over with his tenacious wrestling. However, in recent years the amount of damage he has taken has started to catch up. Nate Landwehr is somewhat similar but opposite to Elkins. He also tends to struggle early in fights but it’s usually because of his opponents wrestling him, as the fight goes on he tends to take over with striking pressure and aggressiveness.
On paper, this seems like a good stylistic matchup for Darren Elkins due to Landwehr’s spotty takedown defence. You could also argue that Landwehr is used to this type of fight having fought in Russia against good wrestlers. Due to the declining durability of Elkins, I have to pick Landwehr in this fight. I think he will get takedown early but be able to scramble up. As the fight goes on, I expect Landwehr to be able to land heavy shots which I don’t think Elkins will be able to take. My pick is Nate Landwehr to win by a 2nd round knockout.
Dontale Mayes vs Rodrigo Nascimento
Two DWCS alumni heavyweights will look to get their first win in the UFC. Dontale Mayes is coming off a loss to top prospect Ciryl Gane in his debut but despite the loss, he showed a lot of heart and durability. Rodrigo Nascimento will be making his UFC debut after submitting Michal Martinek on DWCS.
Dontale Mayes is a good athlete for the division with an interesting skill set. Mayes has a judo background and is very strong in the clinch, especially when defending takedowns. On the feet, he is quite unstructured but effective due to his speed and athleticism. We do not know a lot about Rodrigo Nascimento since there is very little meaningful footage of him prior to his DWCS fight. What we do know is that he has a good BJJ base and has shown a dangerous top game vs Martinek. On the feet, he seems to be quick and throw in combinations.
A tricky fight to predict due to the lack of footage on Nascimento. I think that Mayes is a good prospect at HW due to his athletic gifts as well as his seemingly strong judo base. I think that the majority of the fight will play out on the feet due to the takedown defence of Mayes unless Mayes decides to throw something wild and gets taken down off of that. Therefore, I have to pick Mayes to his experience advantage and his unorthodox yet effective striking. I think that Mayes will win by knockout in the 2nd round.
Quick Picks
Walt Harris by 1st round T/KO
Claudia Gadelha by decision
Edson Barboza by decision
Krzysztof Jotko by decision
Yadong Song by decision
Matt Brown by decision
Anthony Hernandez by decision
Giga Chikadze by 3rd round T/KO
Cortney Casey by decision
Nate Landwehr by 2nd round T/KO
Dontale Mayes by 2nd round T/KO