Tyron Woodley vs Gilbert Burns
A welterweight fight between a former champion in Tyron Woodley and a streaking divisional newcomer in Gilbert Burns. Woodley is coming off a disappointing title loss against Kamaru Usman and will be looking to regain his former form with a win on Saturday. Gilbert Burns moved up to the welterweight division last year and has quickly picked up 3 wins, including a knockout over former title challenger in Demian Maia.
Tyron Woodley’s style is well known to everyone at this point. Woodley is comfortable backing up to the cage and letting his opponents take the centre of the octagon, as a result, he relies on his speed and athleticism to blitz forward and catches his opponents by surprise. This often leads to Woodley losing rounds and relying on big moments to win fights. On top of that, Woodley is a great wrestler with a dangerous top game but has mainly used his wrestling defensively.
Gilbert Burns comes from a BJJ background and is one of the best pure grapplers in UFC. However, his striking has improved a lot during the recent years which is a testament to his work ethic as well as Henri Hooft’s coaching. On the feet, Burns has a good fundamental Dutch kickboxing style with some natural power. However, he isn’t the most defensively solid fighter and can get countered.
This is a tricky fight to predict. I can see it playing out in several ways. The most likely scenarios are either Tyron Woodley being able to counter early and knocking Burns out or the Brazilian winning rounds with his consistent offence to win a decision. I will have to go with the former champion, Woodley will have his chances to catch Burns and I think he will. Burns isn’t the technical striker that Wonderboy is or the suffocating wrestler/clinch fighter that Usman is. My pick is Tyron Woodley to win 1st round T/KO.s
Blagoy Ivanov vs Augusto Sakai
A clash between two top 15 heavyweights looking to take another step towards becoming contenders. Blagoy Ivanov is 2-2 in the UFC with wins over Ben Rothwell and Tai Tuivasa. Meanwhile, Augusto Sakai is on a three-fight winning streak in the UFC, most recently knocking out Marcin Tybura in under a minute.
Blagoy Ivanov comes from a Combat Sambo background, where he holds a win over Fedor Emelianenko. Ivanov is often content to fight off his back foot where he can utilise his boxing skills, he has shown a good jab in his win over Rothwell. Ivanov has also shown the ability to mix in takedowns when he fought Tuivasa. Perhaps Ivanov’s best quality is his durability which is impressive even by heavyweight standards. Augusto Sakai is a solid kickboxer with a consistent pressure game. He can be a bit plodding as seen in his fight against Andrei Arlovski where he had trouble landing on a more mobile opponent. Sakai has shown a solid kicking game which can be useful against smaller heavyweights like Ivanov.
Overall, I have to favour Augusto Sakai in this match up. I think that he will be the one pressuring forward and initiating the exchanges. Ivanov might be able to land some nice jabs off the Blackfoot but I do not think that it will be enough to dissuade the Brazilian. Sakai’s forward pressure paired with his kicks will be key in this fight. My pick is Augusto Sakai to win by decision.
Billy Quarantillo vs Spike Carlyle
A very fun fight between two featherweights that will be fought at a catchweight due to the short nature of the matchup. Both fighters are coming off triumphant UFC debuts. Quarantillo put on a grappling clinic against Jacob Kilburn whilst Spark Carlyle knocked out Alan Cruz in the first round.
Billy Quarantillo is a veteran of the regional scene and has developed a very functional game. On the feet, he likes to take advantage of his cardio and toughness by constantly pressuring his opponents. He is also a good grappler but has been out grappled by bigger and more skilled fighters before. Spike Carlyle is a great athlete but is still trying to develop his overall game. He is quick and powerful on the feet and has shown the ability to pull off unorthodox techniques. Carlyle comes from a wrestling background but doesn’t have the best control.
This is a difficult fight to predict as Quarantillo is the more skilled fighter but Carlyle will have a big advantage when it comes to athleticism. I think that Quarantillo will have to survive some tough moments in the first round but will eventually take over by pushing the pace which Carlyle won’t be able to keep up with. My prediction is Billy Quarantillo to win by a third-round T/KO.
Roosevelt Roberts vs Brok Weaver
Two DWCS alumni will meet in the lightweight division. Roosevelt Roberts rebounded from his first professional loss with a win over Alexander Yakovlev. Book Weaver had a disappointing debut but was still able to pick up the win by disqualification after he got illegally kneed by Rodrigo Vargas.
Roosevelt Roberts has an interesting game. He is a good range boxer with quick hands and is able to throw in combinations. However, his best weapon is his guillotine choke which he can get from either clinch or in more conventional grappling scrambles. Roberts has shown some holes in his footwork as well as defensive wrestling. Brok Weaver is a fun action fighter that will always give it his all. Weaver has some pretty good boxing when up close as well as solid TDD. However, he wasn’t able to get up after getting taken down in his UFC debut.
I think that Roberts is the logical pick in this fight. I favour him to win the boxing exchanges at range with his superior reach and hand speed. Weaver’s path to victory will likely be through forcing dirty boxing exchanges on the inside and in the clinch. However, Weaver won’t be fully safe in the clinch either as Roberts will likely threaten with his guillotine choke whenever he can. Therefore, my pick is Roosevelt Roberts to win by decision.
Mackenzie Dern vs Hannah Cifers
Two strawweights will be looking to get back on track after losing their most recent fights. Mackenzie Dern dropped a decision to the streaking Amanda Ribas in her first fight after her pregnancy. Whilst Hannah Cifers, who is 2-2 in the UFC, was finished by Angela Hill in January. Despite both fighters coming off a loss, it feels that the UFC are trying to feed Mackenzie Dern a win and get her back some of the hype she had before.
Mackenzie Dern made her name as one of the greatest female grapplers of our time. She was probably the most hyped women’s prospect before signing with the UFC. Dern is still very raw on the feet from we have seen. She did show some power when she dropped Amanda Cooper with an overhand before finding a submission. Dern’s takedowns aren’t the best but in reality, she only needs one to be successful once as she is usually levels above her opponents on the ground. Hannah Cifers is an interesting fighter, she is undersized for the weight class and thus has to rely on her striking technique to win fights. She has some power for the but most of her wins do tend to end up being very close. She has shown some deficiencies on the ground in her losses.
In my opinion, this is one of the easier fights to predict on this card. Despite her limitations on the feet, this is a favourable stylistic matchup for Mackenzie Dern. Even if the fight plays out on the feet, I still see it as being very close. However. Dern holds a huge advantage on the ground as well as being the bigger woman. I think that Dern will be able to get a takedown and find a finish on the ground. My prediction is Mackenzie Dern to win by a 1st round submission.
Katlyn Chookagian vs Antonina Shevchenko
Perhaps a future trivia question, as Katlyn Chookagian looks to rebound from her unsuccessful title fight against Valentina Shevchenko as she takes on the champion’s sister, Antonina. Shevchenko is coming off a submission win over Lucie Pudilova.
Katlyn Chookagian is a high output kickboxer that tends to prioritise volume overpower. She has decent footwork and prefers to fight on the outside which can lead to weird fights where nothing is really happening. In her recent fights, Chookagian has shown willingness to sit down on her punches more and initiate exchanges. Antonina Shevchenko comes from an extensive Muay Thai and kickboxing background. She isn’t particularly high volume on the feet but tends to land with power. Her ground game is still a work in progress but she did show big improvements there in the Pudilova fight.
This will likely be a very close fight, maybe even going to a split decision. In my opinion, Shevchenko will benefit from Chookagian’s newfound approach of sitting down on her punches more as it will create more opportunities to trade. In those exchanges I favour Shevchenko. Leg kicks could also be an important factor in this fight if Shevchenko targets the legs like Calderwood did. I think that Antonina Shevchenko will win this fight by a close decision.
Daniel Rodriguez vs Gabriel Green
A matchup that only came together during fight week due to Kevin Holland having to pull out with an injury. Gabriel Green will be making his UFC debut on less than a weeks notice after picking up 6 straight wins with all of them being finishes. Daniel Rodriguez will be looking to build upon his impressive debut upset over Tim Means, where he got a 2nd round T/KO.
Despite having only 1 UFC fight, Daniel Rodriguez fights like a veteran. He has great boxing fundamentals and uses his jab well. Rodriguez throws in combinations and sets everything up with his jab. He also has some good leg kicks and showed that he is dangerous in the clinch too. Gabriel Green is a very fun fighter to watch. On the feet, he throws a lot of volume and can overwhelm his opponents as the fight goes on. On the ground, he is very scrambly but can give up takedowns and top position.
This will likely be a fun fight as Green’s volume striking will force Rodriguez to engage and counter. There is a chance that Green’s volume will be able to confuse D-Rod but I think that Rodriguez’s boxing is too good and he will eventually be able to hurt Green. Rodriguez can also utilise his offensive wrestling to steal close rounds if he wants to. My prediction is Daniel Rodriguez to win by a 2nd round T/KO.
Jamahal Hill vs Klidson Abreu
An intriguing fight in the light-heavyweight division between two fighters looking to break into the top 15. Jamahal Hill is coming off a debut win over Darko Stosic and is 7-0 as a professional. Klidson Abreu will look to rebound from his controversial decision loss to Shamil Gamzatov, prior to that he picked up a win over Sam Alvey.
Jamahal Hill is one of the best unranked prospects at light-heavyweight. He is a high output striker that goes both to the body and the head. His strike selection is impressive for someone that is so young in their professional career. In his early fights, he has shown that he is quite hittable as he doesn’t tend to move his head. He has also shown weak takedown defence and some vulnerability on the ground.
Klidson Abreu is a young veteran, he came up the hard way by fighting on the Russian regional circuit. This allowed him to pick up some big wins as well as high-level experience. On the feet, Abreu is quite ‘meat and potatoes’, he isn’t very high volume but has good leg kicks. The ground is where Abreu really shines at, his takedowns might not be the most dynamic but he has made them work. The Brazilian has a solid top game as well as the propensity for grabbing opportunistic submissions in scrambles.
This is one of the more interesting fights on the card. I think that Hill has a higher ceiling than Abreu but I still have to side with the Brazilian in this fight. Hill’s path to victory relies on him being able to stay upright for the majority of the fight and win a decision based on volume. Whilst Abreu will be looking to take the fight to the ground where I believe he has a significant advantage. The fact that UFC will be using a smaller cage than usual for this event favours the Brazilian as he will have less distance to close for takedowns. My prediction is Klidson Abreu to win a close decision because of his takedowns and top control.
Tim Elliott vs Brandon Royval
An exciting fight in the flyweight division between a promotional newcomer Brandon Royval and grizzled veteran Tim Elliott. Royval is coming in as the LFA flyweight champion and has won 5 out of his last 6. Elliott will be looking to bounce back from a 2 fight skid and regain the form that led him to a title fight in 2016.
Tim Elliott is one of the most fan-friendly fighters on the roster. His unorthodox striking style paired with his non-stop scrambling ability are tough to deal with. Elliott has very good takedowns and even outwrestled Joe Benavidez before getting caught in a submission. On the ground, Elliott sets a very high pace with his scrambles and more often than not ends up on top. However, he has been susceptible to getting caught in submissions. Brandon Royval has a somewhat similar style to Elliott. Striking wise he is very wild and aggressive and will throw unorthodox strikes if he can. Royval is at his best on the ground and despite often ending up on the bottom, he has shown the ability to win fights with his dangerous submission game.
This will likely be a high paced scrambling match between two exciting grapplers. Although Elliott hasn’t been in the best form recently, I think that this is a good stylistic matchup for him. Elliott will likely be able to score takedowns and end up in top position. He will likely have to defend several submission attempts from Royval but I expect his pace and scrambling ability to be too much for the newcomer. I believe that Tim Elliott will win by decision in a fun fight.
Casey Kenney vs Louis Smolka
Another fight that promises to be a fun scrambling affair, this time in the bantamweight division. Casey Kenney is 2-1 in the UFC with wins over Ray Borg and Manny Bermudez, he is also the former LFA bantamweight champion. Louis Smolka is making his second UFC run and is coming off a T/KO win over Ryan MacDonald in his most recent fight.
Casey Kenney comes from a wrestling background and has shown some impressive ground skills in his UFC career. Kenney is a great scrambler and is unlikely to spend much time in a bad position before trying to get up or reverse the position. He has shown good top control and submission defence as seen in his fight against Manny Bermudez. His striking is also impressive with good counters and kicks. Louis Smolka is an equally great scrambler. Smolka has a lanky frame and uses it to his advantage on the ground. He has a variety of trip takedowns from the clinch. When in top position, Smolka floats well and will chain submissions well. He has, however, been out grappled by better positional grapplers like Ray Borg and Tim Elliott. Recently Smolka has shown improvements in his striking by being very aggressive and empathising going to the body.
I think that this will be a very exciting fight wherever it takes place. I have to favour Casey Kenney here, I think that he is just a bit better both standing and on the ground. I think that this fight will end up on the ground sooner rather than later and Kenney will be able to keep top position for longer portions of the fight. I do expect Smolka to have some good moments but Kenney’s submission defence and overall grappling awareness should see him through. My prediction is Casey Kenney to get the nod from the judges.
Chris Gutierrez vs Vince Morales
Another bantamweight fight between two interesting strikers in Chris Gutierrez and Vince Morales. Gutierrez most recently picked up a win over Geraldo De Freitas whilst Morales dropped a controversial split decision to Benito Lopez.
Chris Gutierrez is mainly a kickboxer with a very good leg kicking game. He is a calculated striker and will not rush to finish the fight, he is content staying on the outside and picking his opponents off with his kicks. Gutierrez can be a bit low volume due to his style. Vince Morales is a solid boxer that also has a wrestling background. Morales is a bit of a slow starter and is often too tentative but usually does better as the fight goes on. He throws good boxing combinations and seems to have some power.
This is a tricky fight to predict as I think both fighters are quite evenly matched. Gutierrez has the advantage in kicking range whilst Moraes is the better boxer with more power. On paper, it’s a 50/50 match up but in a small cage, I have to favour Morales. This is because it will reduce the amount of space which Gutierrez can navigate and allow Morales to get into boxing range easier. I think that Morales will do enough to win a decision.
Quick Picks
Tyron Woodley by 1st round T/KO
Augusto Sakai by decision
Billy Qurantillo by 3rd round T/KO
Roosevelt Roberts by decision
Mackenzie Dern by 1st round submission
Antonina Shevchenko by decision
Daniel Rodriguez by 2nd round T/KO
Klidson Abreu by decision
Tim Elliott by decision
Casey Kenney by decision
Vince Morales by decision