Amanda Nunes vs Felicia Spencer
A women’s featherweight title fight as Amanda Nunes looks to become the first UFC fighter to defend in two weight classes simultaneously. Felicia Spencer is coming off a first-round submission win over Zarah Fairn as well as a previous win over Megan Anderson. Amanda Nunes has been running through competition ever since becoming the champion and looks to continue her dominant run of form.
Amanda Nunes is rightfully considered as one of the greatest female martial artists of all time. At her best, Nunes is a fundamentally sound kickboxer backed up by impressive athleticism. She has a big right hand and utilises her kicks well. Nunes does very well to find her opponents at the end of her strikes which maximises their power. ‘The Lioness’ is also very skilled on the ground and is a BJJ blackbelt and has shown finishing ability there.
However, Felicia Spencer is not to be slept on. She was able to upset the applecart in her UFC debut where was pitted against Megan Anderson who was deemed by many as the next contender at featherweight. Spencer had other plans and was able to secure a quick submission. Spencer is primarily a grappler with a solid clinch takedown game. When on the ground, Spencer is good from top position and will methodically advance position and utilise ground and pound to open up submission opportunities.
This isn’t the most difficult fight to predict. I think that Amanda Nunes will have the advantage wherever the fight goes, especially early. She is the more skilled and dangerous striker and should have no issue tagging her opponent. Spencer’s path to victory will be marching through heavy fire to get to the clinch and try to get on top from there. One thing that Spencer has going for her is that is very tough and was able to eat some big shots from Cris Cyborg. Nonetheless, I expect Nunes to make this look relatively easy and pick up a 2nd round T/KO.
Raphael Assuncao vs Cody Grabrandt
A bantamweight fight where both fighters will be desperate for a win. A loss for either man will likely see the end of their time as a top contender. Raphael Assuncao is on a 2 fight losing streak, having lost to Cory Sandhagen by decision in his most recent outing. Meanwhile, Cody Garbrandt has dropped 3 straight, having been finished in all 3 fights. Garbrandt has discussed moving down to flyweight after this fight but whether he goes ahead with it remains to be seen.
Raphael Assuncao is one of the most underrated fighters on the roster, perhaps because of his rather conservative style. Despite the lack of fanfare, Assuncao has beaten some great names such as TJ Dillashaw and Aljamain Sterling. The Brazilian is mainly a patient counterpuncher that will not rush his work and allow his opponents to fall into his traps. Assuncao has shown some surprising power despite the fact that most of his wins tend to come by decision. Another interesting aspect in this fight could be Assuncao’s leg kicks due to Garbrandt’s boxing heavy style.
Cody Garbrandt is perhaps on the opposite side of the spectrum in comparison to his Brazilian opponent. He is one of the most fan-friendly and hyped fighters in the division despite his poor run of form. At his best, Garbrandt is a huge puncher with good head movement and natural countering instincts. ‘No Love’ has also shown good wrestling defence and scrambling ability which isn’t surprising considering he trains at Team Alpha Male. Garbrandt’s downfall has been his temper and inability to mix things up. This usually happens when Garbradnt gets hurt and tries to get his opponent back immediately which makes him predictable and easier to counter.
On paper, I see this as a favourable stylistic matchup for Cody Garbrandt. He will get the striking fights he wants and will enjoy a significant speed advantage over Assuncao. I think that Garbrandt’s boxing skills are more than enough to give his opponent a very difficult time in exchanges, especially if he decides to use his jab more. However, we always have to consider the possibility of Garbrandt seeing red and leaving himself open against an experienced counterpuncher. Even if that happens, I favour Garbrandt’s speed and power in those exchanges. My prediction is Cody Garbarandt to win by 1st round T/KO.
Aljamain Sterling vs Cory Sandhagen
This is perhaps the best fight on the card and the winner will likely fight for the bantamweight title next. Aljamain Sterling has made huge improvements over the last couple of years and is currently on a 4 fight win streak. Cory Sandhagen has taken the UFC by storm and quickly rose up the ranks with wins over John Lineker and Raphael Assuncao.
Aljamain Sterling started out as a grappler and has diligently worked on his striking with Ray Longo. Although Sterling did experience some growing pains as a fighter, everything seems to be clicking at the right time. ‘The Funkmaster’ has become more than just a serviceable striker, he is great at using his long limbs to poke away at his opponents from distance and disrupt their rhythm. He also posses great cardio which allows him to keep up his output for 3 rounds. On the ground, Sterling is arguably the best grappler in the division with a great backpacking game and unorthodox submissions.
Cory Sandhagen is an exciting striker with a deep arsenal of tools and high work rate. Even in his UFC debut, it was evident that Sandhagen had a natural feel for attacking all areas and possessed the kind of footwork that would confuse even the elite of the division. We have seen Sandhagen’s defence falter a bit when pushed back but so far he has shown a good chin. If there is a weakness in his game, it’s likely his takedown defence but he makes up for it with superb scrambling ability that doesn’t allow his opponents to control him for a prolonged period of time.
In my opinion, this is a true 50/50 fight. Although it may seem like a classic grappler vs striker match on paper, both fighters have become so well rounded that they can cause problems for each other wherever the fight goes. I think the X factor in this fight might the size of the cage, which will be smaller than usual. Therefore, I have to pick Sterling considering he employs a smart gameplan with pressure and takedowns. I believe that Aljamain Sterling will pick up a decision win in a very close fight.
Neil Magny vs Anthony Rocco Martin
A welterweight clash between two fighters who will be looking to enter the rankings with a win on Saturday. Neil Magny made a triumphant return to the octagon when he put on an impressive performance against a streaking Li Jingliang. In his most recent outing, Anthony Rocco Martin picked up a decision win over Ramazan Emeev in Russia.
Neil Magny is extremely tall and rangy for the weight class, often we see tall fighter not fight to their strengths and in the past Magny has been guilty of that too. However, he has gradually adjusted his style to make the best of his physical gifts. This was showcased in his most recent fight where picked Jingliang apart from range and bullied him in the clinch. Another strong point of Magny is cardio and toughness which he can use to overcome a difficult start. Magny is also a solid grappler from top position and will expose weaker ground fighters.
Anthony Rocco Martin has taken a tough road to the top and has visibly improved during his UFC career. Initially a grappler, Martin has transformed into a solid kickboxer with a dangerous submission game. On the feet, his best weapon are his leg kicks which have won him several fights recently. Martin doesn’t have the best takedown defence as he often goes for a kimura to counter the takedowns.
This is a tough fight to predict as both fighters seem to be making big improvements in their striking. I think that Magny will benefit from the small cage as it will allow him to initiate clinch exchanges where I think he holds an advantage. Another factor to consider is how well Magny was able to deal with Jingliangs leg kicks, if he is able to take away Martin’s leg kicks then I think he has the advantage in open space too. My pick is Neil Magny to win by decision and showcase more of his recent improvements.
Sean O’Malley vs Eddie Wineland
A bantamweight fight between a top prospect in Sean O’Malley and a grizzled veteran in Eddie Wineland. Sean O’Malley will be making his second UFC appearance of the year after scoring an impressive first-round T/KO finish over Jose Quinonez. Eddie Wineland is also coming off a win, a T/KO win over Grigorii Popov in June of last year.
O’Malley is a dynamic striker with a wide range of attacks. His bread and butter are flashy kicks and accurate straight punches. During his time off, he competed in Quintet where he showed impressive ground skills. Eddie Wineland has a unique striking style where he carries his hands very low and thus relies on speed and reflexes to get out of the way of strikes. This allows him to be more unpredictable in his strikes as they are more difficult to read.
The UFC likely booked this fight in order for O’Malley to win and get more hype going forwards. However, it’s a big step up from his previous opponents. Despite his age, Eddie Wineland is still a very dangerous fighter. Nonetheless, I think that O’Malley’s youth and speed will be enough to win. I think that O’Malley’s straight punches will be key as Wineland will be open to them. My prediction is Sean O’Malley to win by 3rd round T/KO.
Chase Hooper vs Alex Caceres
A fun fight in the featherweight division, where yet again a young prospect will take on an experienced veteran. Chase Hooper is a DWCS product and was victorious in his UFC debut where he finished Daniel Teymur with ground and pound in the first round. Alex Caceres is coming off a decision win over Steven Peterson and will be looking to start building a win streak.
Chase Hooper is a very raw yet talented fighter. At this point in his career, Hooper is almost exclusively a grappler and does not want to spend a lot of time on the feet. He doesn’t have a strong traditional wrestling game but can get takedowns from the clinch or even pull guard. Alex Caceres is a fan-friendly striker with some flashy skills. However, Caceres has shown lapses in concentration and often ends up in much closer fights than they have to be. ‘Bruce Leeroy’ has also shown susceptibility to getting his back taken.
I do not have a great read on this fight, mainly because of how young Chase Hooper is. A fighter that is that young is expected to be making improvements from fight to fight and thus we might see something completely new from ‘The Teenage Dream’. Caceres is clearly the better striker and should be able to land at will as long as the fight stays on the feet. However, I think that eventually, Hooper will be able to get the fight to the ground and get to Caceres’ back. My prediction is Chase Hooper to win by submission in the 2nd round.
Ian Heinsich vs Gerald Meerschaert
A middleweight fight between two weird yet fun fighters. After a strong start to his UFC career, Ian Heinisch has dropped two in a row and thus is in desperate need of a win. Gerald Meerschaert is coming off a submission win over a then-undefeated Derron Winn. In a world with different judges, Meerscahert could be sitting on a 4 fight win streak.
Ian Heinisch has a confusing style to breakdown. He comes from a wrestling background but often prefers to strike. On the feet, he isn’t the most technical striker but makes up for it with his toughness and tenacity. Despite his wrestling background, Heinisch often gets taken down but is able to create a lot of scrambles which wears his opponents out. Gerald Meerschaert came up as an opportunistic submission grappler. During his UFC run, he has slowly but surely improved his striking. Whilst still awkward and slow on the feet, Meerschaert has become a serviceable striker that is able to win rounds and even hurt people. On the ground, Meerschaert is very aggressive and will chase submissions even if it means sacrificing positions.
Another evenly matched fight which is difficult to predict. Ian Heinisch will enjoy the athletic advantage in this matchup, mainly in the speed department. However, I think that Gerald Meerschaert is the more technical fighter on the feet. In the grappling department, GM3 is the much more dangerous fighter but Heinisch’s work rate and scrappiness will likely make it very close. Overall, I have to pick Meerschaert as I think he is the better round winner as well as the more dangerous fighter. The prediction is Gerald Meerschaert to win by a close decision in a messy fight.
Cody Stamann vs Brian Kelleher
Usually, both guys fight at bantamweight but due to the short notice of the match up it was agreed to minimise the weight cutting and fight at featherweight. Brian Kelleher will be making a quick turnaround after finishing Hunter Azure last month when he takes on Cody Stamann. Stamann is coming off a controversial draw with Song Yadong, a fight a lot of people thought he won. Prior to that, he picked up a decision over Alejandro Perez.
Cody Stamann comes from a wrestling background which is evident in his takedowns. He is also a decent striker on the feet with good volume but not a lot of power. Despite his effective takedowns, Stamann doesn’t have the best top control which often allows his opponents to get up relatively quickly. Kelleher is an extremely aggressive and fan-friendly fighter. He constantly looks to press the action and despite not being the most technical striker he can still have success on the feet. He is also a dangerous grappler and has a very effective guillotine with which he gets most of his submissions.
I think that this is a much closer fight than the betting odds indicate. This is a relatively tough stylistic matchup for Stamann. This is because his wrestling game might be negated by Kelleher’s patented guillotine choke. On the feet, I think it’s a close fight with Stamann being the more technical fighter but Kelleher having more power and thus finishing ability. I will go with the upset and pick Kelleher to win by decision.
Charles Byrd vs Maki Pitolo
An exciting fight from the middleweight division. Both fighters will be looking to get back on track after losing their most recent fights. Charles Byrd is 1-2 in the UFC with a submission win over John Phillips and a loss to top prospect Edmen Shahbazyan in his most recent outing. Maki Pitolo is a DWCS alumnus where he knocked out Justin Sumter. However, Pitolo wasn’t successful in his UFC debut and dropped a decision to Callan Potter.
Charles Byrd is an athletically gifted fighter who is at his best in top position on the ground where he can look for submissions. He has shown some solid striking in places but he isn’t the most durable fighter which has led to him getting finished a couple of times. Maki Pitolo has an interesting skillset with solid boxing combinations and a decent wrestling game. However, he often abandons his defence and chooses to brawl which doesn’t bode well for his durability. Pitolo has also shown holes in his submission defence.
This is a difficult fight to predict because both guys are skilled but aren’t very defensively responsible or durable. On the feet, Pitolo has the advantage with his boxing combinations whilst Byrd is the better grappler. I think Byrd will benefit from the small cage as well as being the naturally bigger man. My prediction is Byrd to win by submission in the 1st round.
Jussier Formiga vs Alex Perez
I’m confused why this fight is low down on the card despite both being top 10 in the flyweight division. Despite being on a two-fight losing streak, Jussier Formiga hasn’t looked too diminished in his losses and has a win over Deiveson Figueiredo from last year. Alex Perez is 5-1 with the promotion and will be looking to enter title conversation with a win on Saturday.
Jussier Formiga is a great grappler that has become a technically decent striker on the feet too. He isn’t the flashiest fighter but has a good process to everything he does. Formiga has good takedowns in open space and is also able to quickly transition to the back during a scramble. Alex Perez is a strong wrestler and has also demonstrated a consistently aggressive pressure game on the feet. On the ground, Perez is very well versed and has shown his submission skills in his win over Jordan Espinosa.
To me this one of the more intriguing fights on the card, it will be interesting to see how both men’s grappling styles compare. Formiga is the more dangerous submission grappler and has shown the ability to do it at the highest level. Meanwhile, Alex Perez is the fresher fighter who is really coming into his own. Overall, I have to pick Perez due to his youth, strong wrestling background and pressure striking game. I think that Alex Perez will get the judges’ nod and pick up the biggest win of his career to date.
Alonzo Menifield vs Devin Clark
A fight in the light heavyweight division between the undefeated Alonzo Menifield and Devin Clark. Alonzo Menifield will be looking to build on his 2-0 start in the UFC and enter the top 15 rankings. Devin Clark is coming off a decision win over Dequan Townsend and will be hoping to use his experience to upset the Fortis MMA product.
I still do not have a great read on the type of fighter Alonzo Menifield is. It is obvious that he is a great athlete which he has shown in his first-round finishes over Vinicius Moreira and Paul Craig. Menifield is stocky for the division and fights in a way that compliments his body type. He likes to operate in bursts and uses his lead hand well to set up the more powerful shots with his right. So far, Menifield has shown decent TDD but has also shown susceptibility to getting stuck against the cage.
Devin Clark came into the UFC as a hot prospect. Since then Clark has had his share of ups and downs which in my opinion have made him into a better fighter. Clark comes from a wrestling background and has been adding a competent striking game working under Mike Winkeljohn. Much like his opponent, Clark is on the smaller side for a light heavyweight but does usually benefit from a cardio advantage. Despite his well-roundedness, ‘Brown Bear’ does have some weaknesses. He isn’t the most durable fighter which might have affected him mentally as he sometimes goes on the back foot and gives his opponents the time and space to force their own game on him.
Despite the odds, I think this fight is much closer than it is. On one hand, Menifield is a great athlete with a lot of power and a striking game that could give Clark a lot of trouble. On the other hand, Clark is much more experienced against much better opposition and can wrestle for 15 minutes. I think that this could play out in a similar way to how Clark’s fight with Darko Stosic did. I think that Clark will be able to wear on Menifield in the clinch and drag the fight into the deep waters where he is more proven. My prediction is Devin Clark to win by decision due to his control in the clinch and superior cardio.
Evan Dunham vs Herbert Burns
The opening fight of the night will take place at a catchweight of 150lbs when Evan Dunham comes out from retirement to face submission expert Herbert Burns. Prior to his retirement, Dunham lost 2 in a row but after just under 2 years on the sidelines, he feels reinvigorated enough to come back. Herbert Burns made his UFC debut with a stunning knockout win over Nate Landwehr and will aim to extend his winning streak to 5.
A well-rounded fighter, Evan Dunham has shown some improved boxing skills in the later stages of his career. Since then he has dominated Rick Glenn and Joe Lauzon in fights that were mainly spent on the feet. Dunham is also a skilled grappler and can grind out his opponents from top position. Herbert Burns is a submission expert who is able to take advantage of the slightest lapse of concentration from his opponent. On the feet, Burns is very upright and hittable but has shown a good chin in the past. He has also shown good knees in the clinch as seen in his UFC debut.
If I knew that we were getting the 2016 version of Evan Dunham then he would be an easy pick. However, since then he has been finished twice and retired. Another factor to consider is that Dunham will have to cut an extra 5lbs more than he is used to. Despite his obvious flaws as a striker, Burns is the much fresher and durable fighter as well as being the more dangerous finisher. My prediction is Herbert Burns to win by a 1st round submission perhaps after hurting Dunham to the body.
Quick Picks
Amanda Nunes by 2nd round T/KO
Cody Garbrandt by 1st round T/KO
Aljamain Sterling by decision
Neil Magny by decision
Sean O’Malley by 3rd round T/KO
Chase Hooper by 2nd round submission
Gerald Meerschaert by decision
Brian Kelleher by decision
Charles Byrd by 1st round submission
Alex Perez by decision
Devin Clark by decision
Herbert Burns by 1st round submission